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The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis

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  • J.Robert Beck
  • Stephen G. Pauker

Abstract

The physician's estimate of prognosis under alternative treatment plans is a principal factor in therapeutic decision making. Current methods of reporting prognosis, which include five-year survivals, survival curves, and quality-adjusted life expec tancy, are crude estimates of natural history. In this paper we describe a general- purpose model of medical prognosis based on the Markov process and show how this simple mathematical tool may be used to generate detailed and accurate assessments of life expectancy and health status. (Med Decis Making 3:419-458, 1983)

Suggested Citation

  • J.Robert Beck & Stephen G. Pauker, 1983. "The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 3(4), pages 419-458, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:3:y:1983:i:4:p:419-458
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8300300403
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph S. Pliskin & Donald S. Shepard & Milton C. Weinstein, 1980. "Utility Functions for Life Years and Health Status," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 206-224, February.
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