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Your Reputation Precedes You: Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict

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  • Corinne Bara
  • Govinda Clayton

Abstract

How does the state’s behavior in negotiations with one non-state group influence the behavior of other non-state actors? We argue that the dynamics of different conflicts within the same country are interdependent, and that a state develops a reputation through its interactions with each conflict party. This reputation provides a valuable source of information that other groups use to judge the state’s cooperative intentions. When a state develops a reputation for cooperation, this increases the likelihood of (indirect) reciprocation from other groups. More specifically, we argue that when states enter into (and honor) a ceasefire with one rebel group, they demonstrate a credible reputation for cooperation. A credible reputation for cooperation, we posit, increases the likelihood that other conflict parties enter into ceasefires with the state, or that they de-escalate their military activities. We test our claims using the new civil conflict ceasefire dataset and find support for our argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Corinne Bara & Govinda Clayton, 2023. "Your Reputation Precedes You: Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(7-8), pages 1325-1349, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:7-8:p:1325-1349
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221126725
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    References listed on IDEAS

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