IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v64y2020i9p1612-1637.html

How and When Amnesty during Conflict Affects Conflict Termination

Author

Listed:
  • Lesley-Ann Daniels

Abstract

In the difficult process of ending civil wars, granting amnesty during conflict is seen as a useful option, with an underpinning assumption that trading justice for peace is effective. However, is the case? This article tries to bring some clarity to when and how amnesty given during conflict has an impact. Amnesty should have different effects on diverse conflict endings: negotiated settlement, rebel victory, government victory, or conflict reduction. The article also disaggregates amnesties to test direct impacts as an incentive or through reducing the commitment problem, and indirect effects that give military advantage to the government. Using a cross-national data set of amnesties in dyadic conflicts from 1975 to 2011, the research finds that amnesty’s strongest effect is, surprisingly, not as an incentive but rather to reduce commitment problems. It can lead to negotiated settlements but also to government military advantage. The results have implications for negotiations and conflict resolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Lesley-Ann Daniels, 2020. "How and When Amnesty during Conflict Affects Conflict Termination," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(9), pages 1612-1637, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:9:p:1612-1637
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002720909884
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002720909884
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002720909884?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nilsson, Desiree, 2008. "Partial peace rebel groups inside and outside civil war settlements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4572, The World Bank.
    2. Kirssa Cline Ryckman, 2020. "Lasting peace or temporary calm? Rebel group decapitation and civil war outcomes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 172-192, March.
    3. James D. Fearon, 2004. "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 275-301, May.
    4. Hultman, Lisa & Kathman, Jacob & Shannon, Megan, 2014. "Beyond Keeping Peace: United Nations Effectiveness in the Midst of Fighting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 737-753, November.
    5. Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher, 2011. "Divide and Conquer or Divide and Concede: How Do States Respond to Internally Divided Separatists?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 275-297, May.
    6. Carter, David B. & Signorino, Curtis S., 2010. "Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 271-292, July.
    7. Dancy, Geoff, 2018. "Deals with the Devil? Conflict Amnesties, Civil War, and Sustainable Peace," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 387-421, April.
    8. Barbara F. Walter, 2006. "Building Reputation: Why Governments Fight Some Separatists but Not Others," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 313-330, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Uzoma Iloanugo & Indranil Dutta & M. Emranul Haque, 2020. "Do Amnesty Policies Reduce Conflict? Evidence from the Niger-Delta Amnesty Program," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2011, Economics, The University of Manchester.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nils-Christian Bormann & Burcu Savun, 2018. "Reputation, concessions, and territorial civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 671-686, September.
    2. Corinne Bara & Govinda Clayton, 2023. "Your Reputation Precedes You: Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(7-8), pages 1325-1349, August.
    3. Lesley-Ann Daniels, 2025. "Identity concessions in ethnic civil wars: When are they given and with what outcomes for peace?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(4), pages 1191-1204, July.
    4. Adedokun, Ayokunu, 2017. "Post-conflict peacebuilding: A critical survey of the literature and avenues for future research," MERIT Working Papers 2017-016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Hanne Fjelde & Desirée Nilsson, 2018. "The rise of rebel contenders," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 551-565, September.
    6. Katherine Sawyer & Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham & William Reed, 2017. "The Role of External Support in Civil War Termination," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(6), pages 1174-1202, July.
    7. Casey Crisman-Cox, 2022. "Democracy, reputation for resolve, and civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 382-394, May.
    8. Valery Dzutsati, 2022. "Secessionist conflict as diversion from inequality: The missing link between grievance and repression," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(6), pages 706-730, November.
    9. Nicholas Sambanis & Micha Germann & Andreas Schädel, 2018. "SDM: A New Data Set on Self-determination Movements with an Application to the Reputational Theory of Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(3), pages 656-686, March.
    10. Joel Blaxland, 2021. "Thinking outside the (temporal) box to explain protracted intrastate conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(6), pages 1271-1283, November.
    11. Carlo Koos, 2016. "Does violence pay? The effect of ethnic rebellion on overcoming political deprivation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(1), pages 3-24, February.
    12. Lisa Hultman & Jacob D. Kathman & Megan Shannon, 2016. "United Nations peacekeeping dynamics and the duration of post-civil conflict peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 231-249, July.
    13. repec:osf:socarx:yqk9v_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Omer Zarpli, 2023. "When Do Imposed Sanctions Work? The Role of Target Regime Type," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(7-8), pages 1482-1509, August.
    15. Gary Uzonyi & Matthew Wells, 2016. "Domestic institutions, leader tenure and the duration of civil war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 294-310, July.
    16. Hannah M. Smidt, 2020. "United Nations Peacekeeping Locally: Enabling Conflict Resolution, Reducing Communal Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(2-3), pages 344-372, February.
    17. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2011. "Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 199-211, February.
    18. Han Dorussen & Tobias Böhmelt & Govinda Clayton, 2022. "Sequencing United Nations peacemaking: Political initiatives and peacekeeping operations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(1), pages 24-48, January.
    19. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, 2017. "Dangerous bargains with the devil? Incorporating new approaches in peace science for the study of war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(1), pages 98-116, January.
    20. Barış Arı, 2023. "Democratization as an impetus for peace talks in civil wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(2), pages 162-186, March.
    21. Minnie M Joo, 2025. "Resolving bargaining problems in civil conflicts: Goals, institutions and negotiations," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(3), pages 722-737, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:9:p:1612-1637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.