IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v67y2023i4p617-641.html

Alliance Reliability and Dispute Escalation

Author

Listed:
  • Jesse C Johnson
  • Scott Wolford

Abstract

States form defensive alliances hoping to deter adversaries and avoid war. However, scholars and policy analysts often worry that if an alliance fails to deter the promise of military support will encourage escalation, pushing disputants closer to war. We show that in many cases this concern is unwarranted. We use a game-theoretic model of alliance reliability and crisis bargaining to show that the same factors that indicate unreliability and provoke disputes also encourage alliance members to make concessions rather than risk war. We test this hypothesis using a sample of militarized disputes initiated against members of defensive alliances, where recent shifts in military capabilities represent changes in challengers’ estimates of alliance reliability. Less-reliable alliances are less likely than reliable allies to deter disputes, but they also decrease the probability of escalation relative to reliable alliances. Unreliable alliances need not encourage war; rather, they can discourage it.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesse C Johnson & Scott Wolford, 2023. "Alliance Reliability and Dispute Escalation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(4), pages 617-641, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:4:p:617-641
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221121140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027221121140
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00220027221121140?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Songying & Johnson, Jesse C. & Leeds, Brett Ashley, 2014. "To Concede or to Resist? The Restraining Effect of Military Alliances," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 775-809, October.
    2. Brett Leeds & Jeffrey Ritter & Sara Mitchell & Andrew Long, 2002. "Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 237-260, July.
    3. Carter, David B. & Signorino, Curtis S., 2010. "Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 271-292, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jesse C. Johnson, 2016. "Alliance treaty obligations and war intervention," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(5), pages 451-468, November.
    2. Jesse C. Johnson & Brett Ashley Leeds & Ahra Wu, 2015. "Capability, Credibility, and Extended General Deterrence," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 309-336, March.
    3. Seungjun Kim, 2023. "Protecting home: how firms’ investment plans affect the formation of bilateral investment treaties," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 667-692, October.
    4. Pamp, Oliver & Lebacher, Michael & Thurner, Paul W. & Ziegler, Eva, 2021. "Explaining destinations and volumes of international arms transfers: A novel network Heckman selection model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Michael C. Horowitz & Paul Poast & Allan C. Stam, 2017. "Domestic Signaling of Commitment Credibility," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(8), pages 1682-1710, September.
    6. Iasmin Goes, 2023. "Examining the effect of IMF conditionality on natural resource policy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 227-285, March.
    7. Danielle Villa & Daniel Arnon & Dan Reiter, 2022. "Causes of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change: The Signal of Economic Expropriation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(4-5), pages 651-676, May.
    8. Jesse C Johnson & Stephen Joiner, 2021. "Power changes, alliance credibility, and extended deterrence," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(2), pages 178-199, March.
    9. Roseanne W McManus & Tuba Sendinç, 2025. "Sending the B team: The impact of lesser signals of resolve," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(3), pages 580-594, May.
    10. Bomi K. Lee, 2023. "Triangles, Major Powers, and Rivalry Duration," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(6), pages 1128-1154, July.
    11. Jansesberger, Viktoria, 2024. "Storms, floods, landslides and elections in India's growing metropolises: Hotbeds for political protest?," Working Papers 28, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    12. Bellelli, Francesco S. & Scarpa, Riccardo & Aftab, Ashar, 2023. "An empirical analysis of participation in international environmental agreements," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    13. Julia C. Morse & Bridget Coggins, 2024. "Your silence speaks volumes: Weak states and strategic absence in the UN General Assembly," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 515-544, September.
    14. Katherine Sawyer & Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham & William Reed, 2017. "The Role of External Support in Civil War Termination," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(6), pages 1174-1202, July.
    15. Paul Poast, 2013. "Issue linkage and international cooperation: An empirical investigation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 286-303, July.
    16. Chong Chen & Kyle Beardsley & Nils B Weidmann, 2025. "The grass is always greener on the other side: Transnational ethnic inequality and ethno-nationalist conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(7), pages 2355-2370, December.
    17. Daniel Krcmaric, 2018. "Varieties of civil war and mass killing," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(1), pages 18-31, January.
    18. Evelyne Huber & Itay Machtei & John D. Stephens, 2023. "Testing Theories of Redistribution: Structure of Inequality, Electoral Institutions, and Partisan Politics," LIS Working papers 854, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    19. Hannah Smidt & Constantin Ruhe & Sabine Otto, 2025. "Many hurdles to take: Explaining peacekeepers’ ability to engage in human rights activities," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(4), pages 1095-1111, July.
    20. Solveig Hillesund, 2019. "Choosing Whom to Target: Horizontal Inequality and the Risk of Civil and Communal Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(2), pages 528-554, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:4:p:617-641. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.