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Less Is More? Shifting Power and Third-Party Military Assistance

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  • William Spaniel
  • Burcu Savun

Abstract

In contexts as diverse as civil war interventions, alliances, and military coalitions, states often militarily assist protégés to counteract unfavorable power shifts. Existing theoretical work finds that such assistance mitigates commitment problems and reduces the probability of war. We develop a model that captures this but also includes information asymmetries. In many cases, overcoming the commitment problem encourages the protégé to take greater risks in bargaining, thereby increasing the probability of war due to incomplete information. Using mechanism design, we show that in some cases, no feasible transfer can reduce the probability of war to zero. More broadly, our results indicate that encouraging policymakers to further expand military assistance can backfire despite empirical relationships that may appear otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • William Spaniel & Burcu Savun, 2024. "Less Is More? Shifting Power and Third-Party Military Assistance," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(7-8), pages 1332-1357, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:68:y:2024:i:7-8:p:1332-1357
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027231202797
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brett Leeds & Jeffrey Ritter & Sara Mitchell & Andrew Long, 2002. "Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 237-260, July.
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