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Refugees, Mobilization, and Humanitarian Aid: Evidence from the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Lebanon

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  • Daniel Masterson
  • M. Christian Lehmann

Abstract

This article examines whether refugees are prime candidates for recruitment into armed groups and whether humanitarian aid to refugees impacts their choice to join armed groups. First, our original survey data of 1,358 Syrian households in Lebanon provide evidence that mobilization among the refugee population is low at baseline—the first empirical estimates of the magnitude of the rate of Syrian refugees returning home to fight. Second, leveraging as-if random assignment around a strict altitude cutoff for a United Nations cash transfer program for Syrian refugees, we find little evidence that the aid program had a large effect on mobilization. If anything, our estimates indicate a small decrease in mobilization. Our results stand in contrast to published literature arguing that refugees are prime candidates to join armed groups and humanitarian aid to refugees may support armed groups and fuel recruitment.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Masterson & M. Christian Lehmann, 2020. "Refugees, Mobilization, and Humanitarian Aid: Evidence from the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Lebanon," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(5), pages 817-843, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:5:p:817-843
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002719885176
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Ree, Joppe & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2009. "Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-313, March.
    2. Peter M. Aronow & Cyrus Samii, 2016. "Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(1), pages 250-267, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Altındağ, Onur & O’Connell, Stephen D., 2023. "The short-lived effects of unconditional cash transfers to refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. M. Christian Lehmann, 2020. "Aiding refugees, aiding peace?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(5), pages 1687-1704, September.
    3. Stephen O’Connell & Onur Altındağ & and Rim Achour, 2024. "Geographic poverty targeting in social protection programs: Evidence from a nationwide policy experiment," HiCN Working Papers 418, Households in Conflict Network.

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