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Traditional Decision Analysis and the Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making

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  • Raymond Dacey

    (College of Business and Economics, University of Idaho)

  • Lisa J. Carlson

    (Department of Political Science, University of Idaho)

Abstract

The poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making posits a two-stage process wherein the decision maker first employs a noncompensatory decision rule to eliminate politically unacceptable alternatives and then employs a (perhaps) traditional decision procedure to select from the remaining set of acceptable alternatives. Ageneral decision analysis is used to provide a structured account of the elimination process of the first stage of the poliheuristic theory by displaying a noncompensatory decision rule for eliminating unacceptable policy alternatives. The results show how general decision analysis can be used to specify when an alternative is unacceptable to a political decision maker who is sensitive to public opinion.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Dacey & Lisa J. Carlson, 2004. "Traditional Decision Analysis and the Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(1), pages 38-55, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:48:y:2004:i:1:p:38-55
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002703261053
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlson Lisa J. & Dacey Raymond, 2016. "A Note on a Methodological Issue Pertaining to the Empirical Specification of the Probability of Crisis Initiation," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 97-104, January.

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