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More Than One Replication Study Is Needed for Unambiguous Tests of Replication

Author

Listed:
  • Larry V. Hedges

    (Northwestern University)

  • Jacob M. Schauer

    (Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University)

Abstract

The problem of assessing whether experimental results can be replicated is becoming increasingly important in many areas of science. It is often assumed that assessing replication is straightforward: All one needs to do is repeat the study and see whether the results of the original and replication studies agree. This article shows that the statistical test for whether two studies obtain the same effect is smaller than the power of either study to detect an effect in the first place. Thus, unless the original study and the replication study have unusually high power (e.g., power of 98%), a single replication study will not have adequate sensitivity to provide an unambiguous evaluation of replication.

Suggested Citation

  • Larry V. Hedges & Jacob M. Schauer, 2019. "More Than One Replication Study Is Needed for Unambiguous Tests of Replication," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 44(5), pages 543-570, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jedbes:v:44:y:2019:i:5:p:543-570
    DOI: 10.3102/1076998619852953
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Etz & Joachim Vandekerckhove, 2016. "A Bayesian Perspective on the Reproducibility Project: Psychology," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-12, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sommet, Nicolas & Weissman, David Laurence & Cheutin, Nicolas & Elliot, Andrew, 2022. "How many participants do i need to test an interaction? Conducting an appropriate power analysis and achieving sufficient power to detect an interaction," OSF Preprints xhe3u, Center for Open Science.
    2. Konstantinos Bourazas & Guido Consonni & Laura Deldossi, 2024. "Bayesian sample size determination for detecting heterogeneity in multi-site replication studies," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 33(3), pages 697-716, September.
    3. Freuli, Francesca & Held, Leonhard & Heyard, Rachel, 2022. "Replication success under questionable research practices – a simulation study," MetaArXiv s4b65_v1, Center for Open Science.
    4. Freuli, Francesca & Held, Leonhard & Heyard, Rachel, 2022. "Replication success under questionable research practices – a simulation study," MetaArXiv s4b65, Center for Open Science.
    5. Sommet, Nicolas & Weissman, David Laurence & Cheutin, Nicolas & Elliot, Andrew, 2022. "How many participants do I need to test an interaction? Conducting an appropriate power analysis and achieving sufficient power to detect an interaction," OSF Preprints xhe3u_v1, Center for Open Science.
    6. Samuel Pawel & Leonhard Held, 2022. "The sceptical Bayes factor for the assessment of replication success," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(3), pages 879-911, July.
    7. Freuli, Francesca & Held, Leonhard & Heyard, Rachel, 2022. "Replication Success under Questionable Research Practices - A Simulation Study," I4R Discussion Paper Series 2, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    8. Larry V. Hedges & Jacob M. Schauer, 2021. "The design of replication studies," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(3), pages 868-886, July.
    9. Leon C Reteig & Lionel A Newman & K Richard Ridderinkhof & Heleen A Slagter, 2022. "Effects of tDCS on the attentional blink revisited: A statistical evaluation of a replication attempt," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-23, January.

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