IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ilrrev/v74y2021i1p163-198.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Industrial Policy in China: Some Intended or Unintended Consequences?

Author

Listed:
  • Jing Cai
  • Ann Harrison

Abstract

The authors explore the impact of a 2004 tax reform in China that reduced the value-added tax (VAT) on investment goods. Although the goal of the reform was to encourage upgrading of technology, results suggest there was no significant increase in fixed investment, new product introductions, or productivity. Rather, the authors find that firms shifted the composition of investment toward machinery and increased the capital intensity of production, which is consistent with a fall in the price of capital relative to labor. As a result, employment fell significantly in the treated provinces and sectors. Results are robust to a variety of approaches and suggest that the primary impact of the policy has been to induce labor-saving growth. In 2009, the VAT reform was extended to the rest of China.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Cai & Ann Harrison, 2021. "Industrial Policy in China: Some Intended or Unintended Consequences?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 74(1), pages 163-198, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:74:y:2021:i:1:p:163-198
    DOI: 10.1177/0019793919889609
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0019793919889609
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0019793919889609?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & Jing Cai & Mathias Dewatripont & Luosha Du & Ann Harrison & Patrick Legros, 2015. "Industrial Policy and Competition," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 1-32, October.
    2. Hassett, Kevin A. & Hubbard, R. Glenn, 2002. "Tax policy and business investment," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 20, pages 1293-1343, Elsevier.
    3. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    4. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
    5. repec:eee:labchp:v:1:y:1986:i:c:p:429-471 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Griffith, Rachel & Miller, Helen & O'Connell, Martin, 2014. "Ownership of intellectual property and corporate taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 12-23.
    7. Boeing, Philipp, 2016. "The allocation and effectiveness of China’s R&D subsidies - Evidence from listed firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1774-1789.
    8. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    9. Edgerton, Jesse, 2010. "Investment incentives and corporate tax asymmetries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 936-952, December.
    10. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, January.
    11. Sascha O. Becker & Andrea Ichino, 2002. "Estimation of average treatment effects based on propensity scores," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(4), pages 358-377, November.
    12. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 737-768, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Selale Tuzel & Miao Ben Zhang, 2021. "Economic Stimulus at the Expense of Routine‐Task Jobs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3347-3399, December.
    2. David Cashin & Jamie Lenney & Byron Lutz & William Peterman, 2018. "Fiscal policy and aggregate demand in the USA before, during, and following the Great Recession," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(6), pages 1519-1558, December.
    3. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    4. Lei Zhang & Yuyu Chen & Zongyan He, 2018. "The effect of investment tax incentives: evidence from China’s value-added tax reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(4), pages 913-945, August.
    5. Bilicka, Katarzyna, 2020. "Are financing constraints binding for investment? Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 618-640.
    6. Hines, James R. & Park, Jongsang, 2019. "Investment ramifications of distortionary tax subsidies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 36-51.
    7. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Jacob, Martin & Schneider, Kerstin, 2020. "Do tax incentives reduce investment quality?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 248, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    8. Fan, Ziying & Liu, Yu, 2020. "Tax Compliance and Investment Incentives: Firm Responses to Accelerated Depreciation in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 1-17.
    9. Yang, Yuxiang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2021. "The value-added tax reform and labor market outcomes: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Qiping Xu & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior," NBER Working Papers 27363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Walch, Florian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2011. "Tax Losses and Firm Investment: Evidence from Tax Statistics," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48699, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Giorgia Maffini & Jing Xing & Michael P Devereux, 2016. "The impact of investment incentives: evidence from UK corporation tax returns," Working Papers 1601, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    13. Daniel Green & Brian T. Melzer & Jonathan A. Parker & Arcenis Rojas, 2020. "Accelerator or Brake? Cash for Clunkers, Household Liquidity, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 178-211, November.
    14. Sebastian Eichfelder & Jonathan Hoke, 2020. "Steuerpolitik in der COVID-19-Krise [Tax Policy in the COVID-19 Crisis]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(10), pages 767-773, October.
    15. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Schneider, Kerstin, 2018. "How do tax incentives affect business investment? Evidence from German bonus depreciation," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 231, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    16. Yongzheng Liu & Jie Mao, 2019. "How Do Tax Incentives Affect Investment and Productivity? Firm-Level Evidence from China," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 261-291, August.
    17. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Kluska, Mike & Knaisch, Jonas & Selle, Juliane, 2021. "Senkung der Unternehmenssteuerlast versus Förderung von Investitionen: Was ist die bessere Strategie zur Förderung der Standortattraktivität Deutschlands?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 263, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    18. Ramirez Verdugo, Arturo, 2005. "Tax Incentives and Business Investment: New Evidence from Mexico," MPRA Paper 2272, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Oct 2006.
    19. Guceri, Irem & Albinowski, Maciej, 2021. "Investment responses to tax policy under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1147-1170.
    20. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Kluska, Mike & Knaisch, Jonas & Selle, Juliane, 2021. "Senkung der Unternehmenssteuerlast versus Förderung von Investitionen: Was ist die bessere Strategie zur Förderung der Standortattraktivität Deutschlands?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 266, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:74:y:2021:i:1:p:163-198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.ilr.cornell.edu .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ilr.cornell.edu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.