IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ilrrev/v74y2021i1p163-198.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Industrial Policy in China: Some Intended or Unintended Consequences?

Author

Listed:
  • Jing Cai
  • Ann Harrison

Abstract

The authors explore the impact of a 2004 tax reform in China that reduced the value-added tax (VAT) on investment goods. Although the goal of the reform was to encourage upgrading of technology, results suggest there was no significant increase in fixed investment, new product introductions, or productivity. Rather, the authors find that firms shifted the composition of investment toward machinery and increased the capital intensity of production, which is consistent with a fall in the price of capital relative to labor. As a result, employment fell significantly in the treated provinces and sectors. Results are robust to a variety of approaches and suggest that the primary impact of the policy has been to induce labor-saving growth. In 2009, the VAT reform was extended to the rest of China.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Cai & Ann Harrison, 2021. "Industrial Policy in China: Some Intended or Unintended Consequences?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 74(1), pages 163-198, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:74:y:2021:i:1:p:163-198
    DOI: 10.1177/0019793919889609
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0019793919889609
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0019793919889609?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A. & Hubbard, R. Glenn, 2002. "Tax policy and business investment," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 20, pages 1293-1343, Elsevier.
    2. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hassett, Kevin, 1991. "Recent U.S. investment behavior and the tax reform act of 1986: A disaggregate view," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 185-215, January.
    3. Avraham Ebenstein & Ann Harrison & Margaret McMillan & Shannon Phillips, 2022. "Estimating The Impact Of Trade And Offshoring On American Workers Using The Current Population Surveys," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 12, pages 275-289, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Philippe Aghion & Jing Cai & Mathias Dewatripont & Luosha Du & Ann Harrison & Patrick Legros, 2022. "Industrial Policy and Competition," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 15, pages 349-380, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    6. A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), 2002. "Handbook of Public Economics," Handbook of Public Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    7. Boeing, Philipp, 2016. "The allocation and effectiveness of China’s R&D subsidies - Evidence from listed firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1774-1789.
    8. Sascha O. Becker & Andrea Ichino, 2002. "Estimation of average treatment effects based on propensity scores," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 2(4), pages 358-377, November.
    9. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 737-768, June.
    10. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
    11. repec:eee:labchp:v:1:y:1986:i:c:p:429-471 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Griffith, Rachel & Miller, Helen & O'Connell, Martin, 2014. "Ownership of intellectual property and corporate taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 12-23.
    13. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    14. A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), 2002. "Handbook of Public Economics," Handbook of Public Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    15. Edgerton, Jesse, 2010. "Investment incentives and corporate tax asymmetries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 936-952, December.
    16. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Junguo Shi & Xinyi Yuan & Bert M. Sadowski & Kou Kou & Xuhua Hu & Sihan Li & Shanshan Dou, 2022. "VAT Reform, Regional Ownership Structure, and Industrial Upgrading: Evidence From Firms in Northeast China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    2. Qiutong Xue & Sixian Feng & Muchen Li, 2024. "The Impact of Digital Finance on Industrial Structure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Cashin & Jamie Lenney & Byron Lutz & William Peterman, 2018. "Fiscal policy and aggregate demand in the USA before, during, and following the Great Recession," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(6), pages 1519-1558, December.
    2. Lei Zhang & Yuyu Chen & Zongyan He, 2018. "The effect of investment tax incentives: evidence from China’s value-added tax reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(4), pages 913-945, August.
    3. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    4. Yongzheng Liu & Jie Mao, 2019. "How Do Tax Incentives Affect Investment and Productivity? Firm-Level Evidence from China," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 261-291, August.
    5. Abhay Aneja & Nirupama Kulkarni & S. K. Ritadhi, 2021. "Consumption Tax Reform and the Real Economy: Evidence From India's Adoption of a Value‐Added Tax," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 569-602, September.
    6. Selale Tuzel & Miao Ben Zhang, 2021. "Economic Stimulus at the Expense of Routine‐Task Jobs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3347-3399, December.
    7. Cloyne, James & Kurt, Ezgi & Surico, Paolo, 2025. "Who gains from corporate tax cuts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Ruhollah Eskandari & Morteza Zamanian, 2023. "Heterogeneous responses to corporate marginal tax rates: Evidence from small and large firms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1018-1047, November.
    9. Bilicka, Katarzyna, 2020. "Are financing constraints binding for investment? Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 618-640.
    10. Alexander Ljungqvist & Liandong Zhang & Luo Zuo, 2017. "Sharing Risk with the Government: How Taxes Affect Corporate Risk Taking," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 669-707, June.
    11. Ramón E. López & Pablo Gutiérrez Cubillos & Eugenio Figueroa, 2020. "The Tax Paradox and Weak Tax Neutrality," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(3), pages 1150-1169, January.
    12. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Knaisch, Jonas & Schneider, Kerstin, 2023. "How does bonus depreciation affect real investment? Effect size, asset structure, and tax planning," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 278, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    13. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Danny McGowan & Ismael Sanz & José F. Sanz‐Sanz, 2018. "Corporate Taxation and Productivity Catch‐Up: Evidence from European Firms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 372-399, April.
    14. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Jacob, Martin & Schneider, Kerstin, 2020. "Do tax incentives reduce investment quality?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 248, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    15. David Rodgers & Jonathan Hambur, 2018. "The GFC Investment Tax Break," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Clemens Fuest & Li Liu, 2015. "Does ownership affect the impact of taxes on firm behaviour? Evidence from China," Working Papers 1505, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    17. Fan, Ziying & Liu, Yu, 2020. "Tax Compliance and Investment Incentives: Firm Responses to Accelerated Depreciation in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 1-17.
    18. Yang, Yuxiang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2021. "The value-added tax reform and labor market outcomes: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Hines, James R. & Park, Jongsang, 2019. "Investment ramifications of distortionary tax subsidies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 36-51.
    20. Cui, Wei & Hicks, Jeffrey & Xing, Jing, 2022. "Cash on the table? Imperfect take-up of tax incentives and firm investment behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:74:y:2021:i:1:p:163-198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ilr.cornell.edu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.