IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envirb/v50y2023i2p332-349.html

Future land use conflicts: Comparing spatial scenarios for urban-regional planning

Author

Listed:
  • Cristian Henríquez
  • Mauricio Morales
  • Jorge Qüense
  • Rodrigo Hidalgo

Abstract

Latin America’s intensive urbanization processes are triggering rapid peri-urban transformations and the expansion of cities. These include accelerated metropolization processes, urban sprawl, and the emergence of new conurbations. These changes parallel the expansion of highly profitable agricultural activities and plantations linked to international markets. This paper aims to analyze land use/cover changes between 1990 and 2050 in the Quillota Province, Valparaíso Region, Chile. Specific objectives considered (1) analyzing changes in land use/cover trajectories between 1990 and 2017, (2) simulating changes in land use/cover based on three scenarios of territorial planning to 2050 (trending, ecological planning, and spatial planning), and (3), identifying the areas most likely to be modified by urbanization and agricultural activity as a result of biodiversity loss in the study area. The Dyna-CLUE model implemented was complemented with GIS techniques for the analysis of land use/cover trajectories that allowed classifying and characterizing the most dynamic land uses/cover within the Quillota Province, such as urban land uses. The results of simulations to 2050 show a probable conurbation of medium-sized cities of Quillota-La Cruz-Calera, and future land use conflicts between peri urban-agricultural land use and plantation-natural conservation land use. The results suggest that it is essential to choose scenarios to ensure sustainable land use planning to control urban and peri-urban sprawl and protect areas of high natural value.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristian Henríquez & Mauricio Morales & Jorge Qüense & Rodrigo Hidalgo, 2023. "Future land use conflicts: Comparing spatial scenarios for urban-regional planning," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(2), pages 332-349, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:50:y:2023:i:2:p:332-349
    DOI: 10.1177/23998083221111404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/23998083221111404
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/23998083221111404?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Verburg & Bas Eickhout & Hans Meijl, 2008. "A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 57-77, March.
    2. Yan Liu & Yongjiu Feng & Robert Gilmore Pontius, 2014. "Spatially-Explicit Simulation of Urban Growth through Self-Adaptive Genetic Algorithm and Cellular Automata Modelling," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xiaoshun & Ji, Haitao & Chen, Xin & Liu, Xizhao & Geng, Yiwei & Deng, Bixia & Li, Fan, 2025. "A mechanics-based theoretical framework of urban sprawl force: A case study in Nanjing, Wuxi, and Yangzhou, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yongjiu Feng & Jiafeng Wang & Xiaohua Tong & Yang Liu & Zhenkun Lei & Chen Gao & Shurui Chen, 2018. "The Effect of Observation Scale on Urban Growth Simulation Using Particle Swarm Optimization-Based CA Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Diogo, V. & van der Hilst, F. & van Eijck, J. & Verstegen, J.A. & Hilbert, J. & Carballo, S. & Volante, J. & Faaij, A., 2014. "Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 208-224.
    3. Xigui Li & Pengnan Xiao & Yong Zhou & Jie Xu & Qing Wu, 2022. "The Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Cultivated Land Multifunction and Its Trade-Off/Synergy Relationship in the Two Lake Plains," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-34, November.
    4. Robert Gilmore Pontius, 2018. "Criteria to Confirm Models that Simulate Deforestation and Carbon Disturbance," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, September.
    5. Holger Cammerer & Annegret Thieken & Peter Verburg, 2013. "Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1243-1270, September.
    6. Diogo, V. & Koomen, E. & Kuhlman, T., 2015. "An economic theory-based explanatory model of agricultural land-use patterns: The Netherlands as a case study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Danning Chen & Weifeng Chen & Xincun Zhu & Shugang Xie & Peiyu Du & Xiaolong Chen & Dong Lv, 2025. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Restoration Strategy of Ecological Security Pattern in the Yellow River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-28, October.
    9. Aritta Suwarno & Meine van Noordwijk & Hans-Peter Weikard & Desi Suyamto, 2018. "Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 211-229, February.
    10. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    11. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    12. Hong Shi & Ji Yang & Qijuan Liu & Taohong Li & Ning Chris Chen, 2024. "Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on Fraction Vegetation Coverage Based on PLUS-Dimidiate Pixel Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-18, November.
    13. Ju-Sung Lee & Tatiana Filatova & Arika Ligmann-Zielinska & Behrooz Hassani-Mahmooei & Forrest Stonedahl & Iris Lorscheid & Alexey Voinov & J. Gareth Polhill & Zhanli Sun & Dawn C. Parker, 2015. "The Complexities of Agent-Based Modeling Output Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(4), pages 1-4.
    14. Margaret Gitau & Nathaniel Bailey, 2012. "Multi-Layer Assessment of Land Use and Related Changes for Decision Support in a Coastal Zone Watershed," Land, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27, December.
    15. Xiaoli Hu & Xin Li & Ling Lu, 2018. "Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    16. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Zhu, Tingju & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J. & Ringler, Claudia, 2013. "Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 150-165.
    17. Charlotte Shade & Peleg Kremer, 2019. "Predicting Land Use Changes in Philadelphia Following Green Infrastructure Policies," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-19, February.
    18. Wu, Wei & Yeager, Kevin M. & Peterson, Mark S. & Fulford, Richard S., 2015. "Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 303(C), pages 55-69.
    19. Neumann, Kathleen & Stehfest, Elke & Verburg, Peter H. & Siebert, Stefan & Müller, Christoph & Veldkamp, Tom, 2011. "Exploring global irrigation patterns: A multilevel modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(9), pages 703-713.
    20. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:50:y:2023:i:2:p:332-349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.