IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emffin/v9y2010i1p51-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Default Risk Characteristics of Poll-Based Bond Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Jayadev M.

    (Jayadev M. (corresponding author), Associate Professor, Indian Institute of Management, Bannerghatta Road, Bangalore 560076, India. E-mail: jayadevm@iimb.ernet.in)

  • Joshy Jacob

    (Joshy Jacob, Visiting Assistant Professor, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015, India. E-mail: joshyjacob@iimahd.ernet.in)

Abstract

Poor liquidity of corporate bonds in emerging markets deters reliable estimation of credit spreads. As an alternative, credit spreads based on poll data are introduced in India. These spreads are used for pricing new credit instruments and for valuation of bond portfolios. We examine the credit risk characteristics of these spreads based on the structural models of bond pricing. We find that the spreads are largely deter-mined by the proxies of default probability and recovery rate. Also, the relation between spreads and important credit risk variables is as predicted by the models. These results support the use of poll-based credit spreads. Introducing poll-based spreads in less liquid corporate bond markets is likely to offer a reliable basis for pricing credit instruments and derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Jayadev M. & Joshy Jacob, 2010. "Default Risk Characteristics of Poll-Based Bond Spreads," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(1), pages 51-70, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:9:y:2010:i:1:p:51-70
    DOI: 10.1177/097265271000900103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/097265271000900103
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/097265271000900103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    2. King, Tao-Hsien Dolly & Khang, Kenneth, 2005. "On the importance of systematic risk factors in explaining the cross-section of corporate bond yield spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3141-3158, December.
    3. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    4. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    5. Nikola A. Tarashev, 2008. "An Empirical Evaluation of Structural Credit-Risk Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 1-53, March.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Jacob Gyntelberg & Guonan Ma & Eli Remolona, 2006. "Developing corporate bond markets in Asia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Developing corporate bond markets in Asia, volume 26, pages 13-21, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    10. Min, Hong-Ghi & Lee, Duk-Hee & Nam, Changi & Park, Myeong-Cheol & Nam, Sang-Ho, 2003. "Determinants of emerging-market bond spreads: Cross-country evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-286, December.
    11. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
    12. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December.
    13. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    14. Liu, Sheen & Shi, Jian & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2007. "How much of the corporate bond spread is due to personal taxes?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 599-636, September.
    15. Anderson, Ronald & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2000. "A comparative study of structural models of corporate bond yields: An exploratory investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 255-269, January.
    16. Rodolfo Martell, 2008. "Understanding Common Factors in Domestic and International Bond Spreads," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 365-389.
    17. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
    18. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    19. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bhanu Pratap Singh Thakur & M. Kannadhasan & Vinay Goyal, 2018. "Determinants of corporate credit spread: evidence from India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(1), pages 59-73, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    2. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    3. Diaz Weigel, Diana & Gemmill, Gordon, 2006. "What drives credit risk in emerging markets? The roles of country fundamentals and market co-movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 476-502, April.
    4. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Kim, Dong H. & Stock, Duane, 2014. "The effect of interest rate volatility and equity volatility on corporate bond yield spreads: A comparison of noncallables and callables," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 20-35.
    6. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    9. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    10. Nejadmalayeri, Ali & Nishikawa, Takeshi & Rao, Ramesh P., 2013. "Sarbanes-Oxley Act and corporate credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2991-3006.
    11. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2019. "The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 65-102, March.
    12. Bhanu Pratap Singh Thakur & M. Kannadhasan & Vinay Goyal, 2018. "Determinants of corporate credit spread: evidence from India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(1), pages 59-73, March.
    13. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2018. "Effects of Brexit on Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone Corporate Bond Markets," EIIW Discussion paper disbei251, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    14. Nejadmalayeri, Ali & Mathur, Ike & Singh, Manohar, 2013. "Product market advertising and corporate bonds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 78-94.
    15. Ali Nejadmalayeri & Subramanian Rama Iyer & Manohar Singh, 2017. "Is there an optimally diversified conglomerate? Gleaning answers from capital markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 117-158, July.
    16. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
    17. Kim, Jong-Min & Kim, Dong H. & Jung, Hojin, 2021. "Applications of machine learning for corporate bond yield spread forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    19. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2009. "Credit spreads on corporate bonds and the macroeconomy in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 309-331, September.
    20. Maciej Firla-Cuchra, 2005. "Explaining Launch Spreads on Structured Bonds," Economics Series Working Papers 230, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL Classification: G12; JEL Classification: G13; Credit spreads; structural models; bond pricing; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:9:y:2010:i:1:p:51-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ifmr.ac.in .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.