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NFL Quarterback Development—The Role of Competing Quarterbacks, Rookie Playing Time, and Team Quality

Author

Listed:
  • Brent A. Evans
  • Colin Adams
  • Joshua D. Pitts
  • Donavan Lingerfelt

Abstract

Using data from 1994 to 2017, we consider characteristics that affect quarterback (QB) development in the National Football League. Our analysis leads to three key findings. Firstly, we show that a young QB’s career is worsened when he plays alongside a Pro Bowl QB. Secondly, we find that QB’s career outcomes are better when they are drafted by a bad team. Finally, we investigate the role of rookie playing time and find evidence that playing as a rookie reduces career outcomes. In all three cases, the effects are largest in the latter portion of a QB’s career.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent A. Evans & Colin Adams & Joshua D. Pitts & Donavan Lingerfelt, 2025. "NFL Quarterback Development—The Role of Competing Quarterbacks, Rookie Playing Time, and Team Quality," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 70(1), pages 146-161, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:70:y:2025:i:1:p:146-161
    DOI: 10.1177/05694345241292611
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Hughes & Cory Koedel & Joshua A. Price, 2015. "Positional WAR in the National Football League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(6), pages 597-613, August.
    2. Steven Salaga & Brian M. Mills & Scott Tainsky, 2020. "Employer-Assigned Workload and Human Capital Deterioration: Evidence From the National Football League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(6), pages 628-659, August.
    3. Wolfson Julian & Addona Vittorio & Schmicker Robert H, 2011. "The Quarterback Prediction Problem: Forecasting the Performance of College Quarterbacks Selected in the NFL Draft," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-22, July.
    4. J.D. Pitts & B. Evans, 2018. "Evidence on the importance of cognitive ability tests for NFL quarterbacks: what are the relationships among Wonderlic scores, draft positions and NFL performance outcomes?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(27), pages 2957-2966, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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