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The Role of Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rate on the Output Growth in Nigeria

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  • R. Santos Alimi
  • Bayo Fatukasi

Abstract

This study empirically examines the impact of oil price and exchange rate on Nigerian economy. Data spanning over the period of 1970 to 2012 was used and we applied the stationary tests, vector autoregressive model and the impulse-response function analysis. The results of the unit root tests shows that all the series are integrated of order one and results obtained from the impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decompositions (VDCs) for country shows that oil price has a significant impact on real output in Nigerian economy. We found also, that the effect of a one standard deviation shock in the oil price to GDP shows that economic growth will decline. Finally, we found the effect of real exchange rate on growth to be positive but marginal. Therefore, policy makers should endeavor to avoid policy that triggers fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Santos Alimi & Bayo Fatukasi, 2014. "The Role of Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rate on the Output Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Financial Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 70-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:rss:jnljfe:v3i2p1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edwards, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2005. "Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2079-2105, November.
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    8. Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Abimbola Oyinlola & Olusegun Omisakin, 2011. "Oil price shocks and economic growth in Nigeria: are thresholds important?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 35(4), pages 308-333, December.
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