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Financement dynamique des intermédiaires financiers : l’effet de la volatilité du taux de crédit sur les dépôts de base

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  • Chateau, Jean-Pierre D.

    (Faculté de Management, Université McGill)

Abstract

This paper looks at the near-term and equilibrium effects of loan-rate volatility on the optimal liability-funding policies of a risk-neutral intermediary that exhibits constant returns to scale in its asset transformation technology. It is shown, first, that given convex adjustment costs, the flow of current new savings is an increasing function of the shadow price of existing deposits. It is shown, next, that increased credit-rate volatility raises this current flow of new savings; and rate volatility also affects positively the expected long-run holding of core deposits, if the loan rate is serially uncorrelated. These results hold true for most cases of serial correlation as well. Finally, it is shown that when credit rate fluctuations show temporal persistence, the model will lead explicitly to long-run disintermediation under the following restrictive conditions: the adjustment cost technology is more convex than the intermediation technology, where more convex hinges on serial correlation in rates, the discount factor and the attrition rate of core deposits. L’étude examine les effets à court et long terme de la volatilité du taux de crédit sur les moyens de financement d’un intermédiaire financier qui est caractérisé par la neutralité au risque et des rendements constants à l’échelle dans sa technologie de transformation d’actifs. Étant donné l’existence de coûts d’ajustement convexes, nous démontrons que le flux courant de dépôts nouveaux est une fonction croissante du prix d’ordre des dépôts existants. Nous prouvons aussi qu’un accroissement de la volatilité du taux de crédit augmente le flux courant de dépôts nouveaux. De plus, si le taux de crédit ne présente pas de corrélation chronologique, cette volatilité accrue fait monter le niveau anticipé d’équilibre à long terme des dépôts de base. Ces résultats se vérifient également dans la plupart des cas où le taux est corrélé chronologiquement. Les fluctuations du taux de crédit étant corrélées, le modèle d’optimisation peut même entraîner une situation particulière, la désintermédiation à long terme des dépôts de base. C’est le cas si le coût marginal d’ajustement est plus convexe que la fonction d’intermédiation : ceci ne se réalise (de façon non ambiguë) que s’il y a forte persistance temporelle des fluctuations du taux de crédit, que si le facteur d’actualisation est faible et que si le taux d’attrition des dépôts existants est élevé.

Suggested Citation

  • Chateau, Jean-Pierre D., 1990. "Financement dynamique des intermédiaires financiers : l’effet de la volatilité du taux de crédit sur les dépôts de base," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 66(1), pages 50-64, mars.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:66:y:1990:i:1:p:50-64
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    References listed on IDEAS

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