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Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. Corporations: A Reassessment

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  • Ellen McGrattan

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

This paper reassesses the conclusions of McGrattan and Prescott (2005), which derived the quantitative implications of growth theory for U.S. corporate valuations. In addition to having two more decades of data, the analysis incorporates recent changes in policies that affect corporate investments, taxes, and legal-form choice. Secular trends identified in the earlier period remain, with little change in the tangible capital-output ratio or profit share of output. Corporate valuations remain high relative to the postwar average, in line with the theoretical prediction. Critical to this prediction is the decline in effective tax rate on distributions and the rise of foreign direct investment abroad. With the recent enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, corporate valuations are predicted to rise even further relative to GDP. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Ellen McGrattan, 2023. "Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. Corporations: A Reassessment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 131-145, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:23-164
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.07.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:257-345 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital and Technology: An Expanded Framework," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 11-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2010. "Technology Capital and the US Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1493-1522, September.
    5. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2017. "On financing retirement with an aging population," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 75-115, March.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "Is the stock market overvalued?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Fall), pages 20-40.
    8. Robert J. Barro & Jason Furman, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of the 2017 Tax Reform," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 257-345.
    9. Anmol Bhandari & Ellen R McGrattan, 2021. "Sweat Equity in U.S. Private Business," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 727-781.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Taxation; Productive capital stocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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