IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/qnt/quantl/y2006i1p43-51.html

Model selection and paradoxes of prediction (in Russian)

Author

Listed:
  • Oleg Itskhoki

    (Harvard University, USA
    Central Economics & Mathematics Institute, Russia)

Abstract

In this essay we postulate a number of theoretical hypotheses allowing one to resolve in some degree the following two prediction paradoxes: (1) why simple linear models often have an advantage in predictive power over more complex nonlinear models that lead to a better in-sample fit; (2) why combinations of forecasts often increase the predictive power of individual forecasts. We also give a numerical example illustrating our theoretical statements.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleg Itskhoki, 2006. "Model selection and paradoxes of prediction (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 1, pages 43-51, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:qnt:quantl:y:2006:i:1:p:43-51
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://quantile.ru/01/01-OI.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 515-554, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roman S. Leukhin, 2019. "Short-Term Fiscal Projections Using Forecast Combination Approach," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 9-21, June.
    2. Taganov, B. & Idrisov, G., 2016. "Investment Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements: Quality Matters," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 40-65.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Onatski, Alexei, 2015. "Asymptotic analysis of the squared estimation error in misspecified factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 388-406.
    2. Chiu, Chien-Liang & Chang, Ting-Huan, 2009. "What proportion of renewable energy supplies is needed to initially mitigate CO2 emissions in OECD member countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1669-1674, August.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Ho, Sy-Hoa & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Lianjie Duan, 2022. "Estimation of export cutoff productivity of Chinese industrial enterprises," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(11), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Slimani, Slah & Bakari, Sayef & Othmani, Abdelhafidh, 2015. "Croissance et Soutenabilité de la Dette Extérieure Tunisienne pour la Période 1970-2012 : Une Analyse Dynamique [Growth and Sustainability of Tunisian External Debt for the Period 1970-2012: A Dynamic Analysis]," MPRA Paper 80954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bertrand Candelon & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2013. "Network Effects and Infrastructure Productivity in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 887-913, December.
    7. Exterkate, Peter & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using kernel ridge regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 736-753.
    8. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Chen, Qitong & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haiqi, 2024. "Time-varying forecast combination for factor-augmented regressions with smooth structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    10. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    11. Pitarakis Jean-Yves, 2006. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, March.
    12. Albert J.F. Yang & William N. Trumbull & Chin Wei Yang & Bwo‐Nung Huang, 2011. "On The Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Threat, And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 449-457, April.
    13. Francesco Lisi & Ismail Shah, 2024. "Joint Component Estimation for Electricity Price Forecasting Using Functional Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-18, July.
    14. Dai, Zhifeng & Chang, Xiaoming, 2021. "Forecasting stock market volatility: Can the risk aversion measure exert an important role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Lastauskas, Povilas & Stakėnas, Julius, 2024. "Labor market policies in high- and low-interest rate environments: Evidence from the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    16. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Xu, Fang, 2014. "Testing for unit roots in bounded time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 259-272.
    17. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
    18. Chan Wai-Sum & Hung King-Chi, 2011. "On Robust Testing and Modelling of Threshold-Type Non-Linearity in ASEAN Foreign Exchange Markets," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Fawaz, Fadi & Rahnamamoghadam, Masha & Valcarcel, Victor, 2014. "A Refinement of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 55268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Young-Joo Kim & Myung Hwan Seo, 2017. "Is There a Jump in the Transition?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 241-249, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qnt:quantl:y:2006:i:1:p:43-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Anatolyev (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://quantile.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.