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Croissance et spécialisation

  • Pierre Villa
  • Frédéric Busson
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    [eng] Growth and specialisation In order to study the links between foreign trade and economic growth, we introduce variables describing the pattern of international trade into a convergence model. This leads us to construct and discuss three indices: the inter-sectoral trade index, the dissimilarity index which takes account of the uncertainty in the real growth of exports, and the foreign demand growth index which measures the interaction between inter-sectoral specialisation and the growth of world trade. The intrasectoral specialisation and the foreign demand growth index are positively correlated with growth, the dissimilarity index is negatively correlated. The process of trade specialisation itself thus appears to be a factor likely to influence growth. [fre] Croissance et spécialisation Afin d'étudier les liens entre commerce extérieur et croissance économique, nous introduisons des variables de commerce international dans le modèle de convergence. Cela nous amène à construire et à discuter trois indices : l'indice de spécialisation interbranche du commerce, l'indice de dissimilarité prenant en compte l'incertitude de la croissance des exportations en volume et l'indice de croissance de la demande étrangère mesurant les interactions entre la spécialisation interbranche et la croissance du marché mondial. Le commerce intrabranche et la croissance de la demande étrangère sont corrélés positivement à la croissance, l'indice de dissimilarité négativement. Au-delà de l'ouverture même, la nature de la spécialisation du commerce apparaît donc comme un facteur susceptible d'influencer la croissance.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 48 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 1457-1483

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1997_num_48_6_409949
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1997.409949
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    1. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Antonio Aquino, 1978. "Intra-industry trade and inter-industry specialization as concurrent sources of International Trade in manufactures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(2), pages 275-296, June.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    4. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    5. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
    6. Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1990. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
    8. Krugman, Paul R, 1981. "Intraindustry Specialization and the Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 959-73, October.
    9. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Freudenberg, 1997. "Intra-Industry Trade: Methodological Issues Reconsidered," Working Papers 1997-01, CEPII research center.
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