Croissance et spécialisation
[eng] Growth and specialisation In order to study the links between foreign trade and economic growth, we introduce variables describing the pattern of international trade into a convergence model. This leads us to construct and discuss three indices: the inter-sectoral trade index, the dissimilarity index which takes account of the uncertainty in the real growth of exports, and the foreign demand growth index which measures the interaction between inter-sectoral specialisation and the growth of world trade. The intrasectoral specialisation and the foreign demand growth index are positively correlated with growth, the dissimilarity index is negatively correlated. The process of trade specialisation itself thus appears to be a factor likely to influence growth. [fre] Croissance et spécialisation Afin d'étudier les liens entre commerce extérieur et croissance économique, nous introduisons des variables de commerce international dans le modèle de convergence. Cela nous amène à construire et à discuter trois indices : l'indice de spécialisation interbranche du commerce, l'indice de dissimilarité prenant en compte l'incertitude de la croissance des exportations en volume et l'indice de croissance de la demande étrangère mesurant les interactions entre la spécialisation interbranche et la croissance du marché mondial. Le commerce intrabranche et la croissance de la demande étrangère sont corrélés positivement à la croissance, l'indice de dissimilarité négativement. Au-delà de l'ouverture même, la nature de la spécialisation du commerce apparaît donc comme un facteur susceptible d'influencer la croissance.
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Volume (Year): 48 (1997)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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