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Taux de change réel et croissance : Perspectives pour une zone euro en Méditerranée

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  • Amina Lahrèche-Revil

Abstract

[eng] Real Exchange Rates and Growth, Some Prospects for a Euro Zone in the Mediterranean Area . The coming of the euro will force South Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) to define their exchange rate policy with respect to the new currency. This paper examines their real exchange rate policy vis-à-vis the euro. The theoretical framework allows for an underdevelopment trap, that can be overcome thanks to a temporary variation in the real exchange rate. The long run growth rate can therefore be modified through a temporary exchange rate movement. The empirical analysis shows that, given their level of development, SMCs could use their real exchange rate to grow more rapidly. This would not necessarily adversely affect their European partners. Hence, SMCs should, above all, prevent any real overvaluation of their currencies. [fre] L’arrivée de l’euro imposera aux pays du sud de la Méditerranée (PSM) de définir leur politique de change par rapport à cette nouvelle monnaie. Cet article examine la politique de taux de change réel de ces pays vis-à-vis de l’euro, dans un cadre théorique autorisant l’existence d’une trappe à sous-développement, et dans lequel une variation temporaire du taux de change réel peut avoir un impact sur le rythme de croissance à long terme de l’économie. L’analyse empirique montre que les PSM sont susceptibles, compte tenu de leur niveau de développement, de tirer effectivement profit de leur taux de change réel pour croître plus rapidement, sans pour autant que cela dégrade les perspectives de croissance de leurs partenaires européens. Les PSM doivent donc, avant tout, éviter la surévaluation de leurs monnaies.

Suggested Citation

  • Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 1999. "Taux de change réel et croissance : Perspectives pour une zone euro en Méditerranée," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 117-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_1999_num_52_2_3533
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.1999.3533
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.1999.3533
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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