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Déterminants de la décision d'investir et destination économique des équipements

  • Antoine Naboulet
  • Sébastien Raspiller
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    [fre] L'importance relative des différents déterminants traditionnels de l'investissement (demande, profits, contraintes financières et technologiques) demeure imparfaitement connue. Si pendant longtemps la demande est apparue comme le déterminant le plus important, des analyses empiriques ont mis en évidence qu'en France la profitabilité des entreprises ainsi que leurs contraintes financières ont, sur les vingt dernières années, influencé significativement le niveau d'investissement. Une approche centrée sur les décisions individuelles d'investissement et s'appuyant directement sur les perceptions des entreprises permet d'offrir un autre point de vue sur la hiérarchie des déterminants. D'une part, les déterminants ont des influences asymétriques sur les différentes composantes stratégiques de l'investissement matériel : les perspectives de demande prédominent quand il s'agit d'accroître les capacités de production alors que les facteurs techniques sont plus influents quand il s'agit de rationaliser le processus de production. D'autre part, les facteurs réels demeurent les principaux moteurs de l'investissement alors que les facteurs liés au financement n'apparaissent que dans un sens limitatif dans les décisions d'investissement. [eng] The relative importance of various traditional determinants of investment (demand, profi t, fi nancial and technological constraints) remains insuffi ciently understood. Although over a long period of time demand appears to be the most important determinant, empirical analyses have shown that, in France, business profi tability, and fi nancial constraints, have over the last 20 years signifi -cantly infl uenced the level of investment. An approach focussing on individual investment decisions and drawing directly on business perceptions provides another perspective on the determinant hierarchy. On the one hand, the determinants have asymmetrical effects on the various strategic components of material investment: demand perspectives dominate with regard to increasing production capacities whilst technical factors are more infl uential as concerns rationalising production processes. On the other hand, the real factors remain the principal driving forces of investment whilst the factors linked to funding only appear in a restrictive sense in investment decisions. Determinants of Investment Decisions and the Economic Purpose of Materials [ger] Determinanten der Investitionsentscheidung und wirtschaftliche Bestimmung der Ausrüstungsgüter. Die relative Bedeutung der verschiedenen traditionellen Investitionsdeterminanten (Nachfrage, Gewinne, fi nanzielle und technologische Zwänge) ist nach wie vor nur unvollständig bekannt. Lange Zeit war die Nachfrage die wichtigste Determinante; empirische Analysen zeigten aber, dass in Frankreich die Rentabilität der Unternehmen sowie deren fi nanzielle Zwänge in den letzten zwanzig Jahren das Investitionsniveau nennenswert beeinfl usst haben. Ein Ansatz, der sich auf die individuellen Investitio nsentscheidungen konzentriert und unmittelbar auf den Wahrnehmungen der Unternehmen basiert, bietet eine andere Sichtweise von der Hierarchie der Determinanten. Zum einen üben die Determinanten asymmetrische Einfl üsse auf die verschiedenen strategischen Komponenten der Investition in Sachanlagen aus: die Nachfrageaussichten dominieren, wenn die Produktionskapazitäten aufgestockt werden müssen, während technische Faktoren entscheidender sind, wenn es den Produktionsprozess zu rationalisieren gilt. Zum anderen sind die realen Faktoren weiterhin die wichtigsten Investitionsmotoren, wohingegen Faktoren betreffend die Finanzierung bei den Investit ionsentscheidungen nur in einer Richtung einschränkend wirken. [spa] Determinantes de la decisión de inversión y destino económico de los equipamientos. La importancia relativa de los diferentes determinantes tradicionales de la inversión (demanda, benefi cios, imperativos fi nancieros y tecnológicos) permanece imperfectamente conocida. Si durante mucho tiempo la demanda apareció como el determinante más importante, análisis empíricos han evidenciado que en Francia la rentabilidad de las empresas, así como sus imperativos fi nancieros, ha infl uido signifi cativamente el nivel de inversión en los últimos veinte años. Un enfoque centrado en las decisiones individuales de inversión, y basado directamente en las percepciones de las empresas, permite ofrecer otro punto de vista sobre la jerarquía de los determinantes. Por un lado, los determinantes infl uyen asimétricamente sobre los diferentes componentes estratégicos de la inversión material: las perspectivas de demanda prevalecen cuando se trata de incrementar la capacidad de producción, mientras que los factores técnicos son más infl uyentes cuando se trata de racionalizar el proceso de producción. Por otro, los factores reales permanecen como los principales motores de inversión, mientras que los factores vinculados a la fi nanciación sólo aparecen en un sentido limitativo en las decisiones de inversión.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/estat.2006.7135
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Economie et statistique.

    Volume (Year): 395 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 141-163

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2006_num_395_1_7135
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2006.7135
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/estat

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    1. Mojon, Benoit & Smets, Frank & Vermeulen, Philip, 2002. "Investment and monetary policy in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2111-2129, November.
    2. F. Modigliani & H. M. Weingartner, 1958. "Forecasting Uses of Anticipatory Data on Investment and Sales," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 23-54.
    3. Michel Norotte & Pierre Morin & Gilbert Venet, 1987. "Le comportement d'investissement des entreprises françaises : analyses et problèmes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 80(4), pages 5-50.
    4. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Hernando, Ignacio & Generale, Andrea & Chatelain, Jean Bernard & Vermeulen, Philip, 2001. "Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    5. Fabienne Rosenwald, 2001. "L'impact des conditions financières sur la décision d'investissement," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 341(1), pages 15-28.
    6. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    8. Robert Eisner, 1978. "Factors in Business Investment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number eisn78-1, September.
    9. Eisner, Robert, 1972. "Components of Capital Expenditures: Replacement and Modernization Versus Expansion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(3), pages 297-305, August.
    10. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    11. Feldstein, Martin S & Foot, David K, 1971. "The Other Half of Gross Investment: Replacement and Modernization Expenditures," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 49-58, February.
    12. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    13. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    14. Robert Eisner, 1978. "Introduction to "Factors in Business Investment"," NBER Chapters, in: Factors in Business Investment, pages 1-16 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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