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Application of type II diabetes incidence and mortality rates for insurance

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  • Jack C Yue
  • Hsin-Chung Wang
  • Ting-Chung Chang

Abstract

Prolonging life is a global trend, and more medical expenditure is being spent on chronic diseases owing to population aging. Diseases commonly seen in middle-aged and elderly people, such as heart disease and diabetes, have slowed mortality improvement in recent years. Diabetes is a common chronic disease and comorbidity of many serious health conditions. The total estimated cost of diabetes in the United States was $327 billion in 2017. However, many people are unaware that diabetes is common, and at least 21.4% of adults do not know that they have diabetes. The number of diabetes-related deaths has been increasing, and diabetes was the 5th cause of death in Taiwan in 2019. In this study, we explore the trend and influence of diabetes in Taiwan and apply mortality models, such as the Lee-Carter and Age-Period-Cohort models, using data from Taiwan’s National Insurance to model the incidence and mortality rates of diabetes. We found that the Lee-Carter model provides fairly satisfactory estimates and that people with diabetes regularly taking diabetes medication have lower mortality rates. Moreover, we demonstrate how these results can be used to design diabetes related insurance products and prepare the insured to face the impact of incurring diabetes. In addition, we consider different criteria for judging whether people have diabetes (as there is no consensus on these criteria) and investigate the issue of moral hazard in designing diabetes insurance products.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack C Yue & Hsin-Chung Wang & Ting-Chung Chang, 2024. "Application of type II diabetes incidence and mortality rates for insurance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(9), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0307508
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307508
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yue, Jack C. & Wang, Hsin-Chung & Leong, Yin-Yee & Su, Wei-Ping, 2018. "Using Taiwan National Health Insurance Database to model cancer incidence and mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 316-324.
    2. Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd & Guy Coughlan & David Epstein & Alen Ong & Igor Balevich, 2009. "A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Wang, Hsin-Chung & Yue, Ching-Syang Jack & Chong, Chen-Tai, 2018. "Mortality models and longevity risk for small populations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 351-359.
    4. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
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