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Assessment of the environmental impacts of conflict-driven Internally Displaced Persons: A sentinel-2 satellite based analysis of land use/cover changes in the Kas locality, Darfur, Sudan

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  • Abdalrahman Ahmed
  • Brian Rotich
  • Kornel Czimber

Abstract

Internal displacement of populations due to armed conflicts can substantially impact a region’s Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and the efforts towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The objective of this study was to determine the effects of conflict-driven Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) on vegetation cover and environmental sustainability in the Kas locality of Darfur, Sudan. Supervised classification and change analysis were performed on Sentinel-2 satellite images for the years 2016 and 2022 using QGIS software. The Sentinel-2 Level 2A data were analysed using the Random Forest (RF) Machine Learning (ML) classifier. Five land cover types were successfully classified (agricultural land, vegetation cover, built-up area, sand, and bareland) with overall accuracies of more than 86% and Kappa coefficients greater than 0.74. The results revealed a 35.33% (-10.20 km2) decline in vegetation cover area over the six-year study period, equivalent to an average annual loss rate of -5.89% (-1.70 km2) of vegetation cover. In contrast, agricultural land and built-up areas increased by 17.53% (98.12 km2) and 60.53% (5.29 km2) respectively between the two study years. The trends of the changes among different LULC classes suggest potential influences of human activities especially the IDPs, natural processes, and a combination of both in the study area. This study highlights the impacts of IDPs on natural resources and land cover patterns in a conflict-affected region. It also offers pertinent data that can support decision-makers in restoring the affected areas and preventing further environmental degradation for sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdalrahman Ahmed & Brian Rotich & Kornel Czimber, 2024. "Assessment of the environmental impacts of conflict-driven Internally Displaced Persons: A sentinel-2 satellite based analysis of land use/cover changes in the Kas locality, Darfur, Sudan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(5), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0304034
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Siddig, Khalid & Stepanyan, Davit & Wiebelt, Manfred & Grethe, Harald & Zhu, Tingju, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Hailu, Alemenesh & Mammo, Siraj & Kidane, Moges, 2020. "Dynamics of land use, land cover change trend and its drivers in Jimma Geneti District, Western Ethiopia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
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