IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0303793.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modern models for predicting bankruptcy to detect early signals of business failure: Evidence from Montenegro

Author

Listed:
  • Milica Vukčević
  • Milan Lakićević
  • Boban Melović
  • Tamara Backović
  • Branislav Dudić

Abstract

This paper explores predicting early signals of business failure using modern models for bankruptcy prediction. It reviews how continuous operations enhance market value, strengthening competitiveness and reputation among stakeholders. The study involves medium and large companies in the Montenegrin market from 2015 to 2020, comprising 30 bankrupt and 70 financially stable firms. Logistic regression is also employed to create a logit model for early detection of bankruptcy signals in companies. This research establishes the empirical validity of modern models in predicting business failure in the Montenegrin market, particularly through logistic regression. Significant indicators, such as the Degree of Indebtedness (DI) and turnover ratio of business assets (TR), exhibit strong predictive power with a p-value less than 0.001 according to Likelihood ratio tests. The paper underscores the potential benefits of bankruptcy prediction for both internal and external stakeholders, especially investors, in enhancing the competitiveness of Montenegro’s large and medium-sized companies. Notably, the research contributes by bridging the gap between theory and practice in Montenegro, as bankruptcy prediction models have not been extensively applied in the market. The authors suggest the possible applicability of the created logit model to neighboring countries with similar economic development levels. In that sense, the concept of predicting bankruptcy is positioned as integral to corporate strategy, impacting the overall reduction of bankruptcies. The paper concludes by highlighting its role as a foundation for future research, addressing the literature gap in the application of bankruptcy prediction models in Montenegro. The created logit model, tailored to the specific needs of Montenegrin companies, is presented as an original contribution, emphasizing its potential to strengthen the competitiveness of companies in the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Milica Vukčević & Milan Lakićević & Boban Melović & Tamara Backović & Branislav Dudić, 2024. "Modern models for predicting bankruptcy to detect early signals of business failure: Evidence from Montenegro," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(5), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0303793
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0303793
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0303793
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0303793&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0303793?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicoleta Bărbuță-Mișu & Mara Madaleno, 2020. "Assessment of Bankruptcy Risk of Large Companies: European Countries Evolution Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Tatiana Vitalievna Pogodina & Tatiana Viktorovna Muzhzhavleva & Natalya Leonidovna Udaltsova, 2020. "Strategic management of the competitiveness of industrial companies in an unstable economy," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(3), pages 1555-1564, March.
    3. Ondřej Machek, 2014. "Long-term Predictive Ability of Bankruptcy Models in the Czech Republic: Evidence from 2007-2012," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 14-17.
    4. Daniel Ogachi & Richard Ndege & Peter Gaturu & Zeman Zoltan, 2020. "Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Model, a Special Focus on Listed Companies in Kenya," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    6. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    7. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure - Reply," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 123-127.
    8. K. G. M. Nanayakkara & A. A. Azeez, 2015. "Predicting Corporate Financial Distress in Sri Lanka: An Extension to Z-Score Model," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(3), pages 41-56, March.
    9. David Ahlstrom & Jean‐Luc Arregle & Michael A. Hitt & Gongming Qian & Xufei Ma & Dries Faems, 2020. "Managing Technological, Sociopolitical, and Institutional Change in the New Normal," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 411-437, May.
    10. Fernández-Gámez, Manuel Ángel & Soria, Juan Antonio Campos & Santos, José António C. & Alaminos, David, 2020. "European country heterogeneity in financial distress prediction: An empirical analysis with macroeconomic and regulatory factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 398-407.
    11. Aida Hanic & Emina Zunic & Adnan Dzelihodzic, 2013. "Scoring Models of Bank Credit Policy Management," Economic Analysis, Institute of Economic Sciences, vol. 46(1-2), pages 12-27.
    12. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    13. Dragana Bešlić Obradović & Dejan Jakšić & Ivana Bešlić Rupić & Mirko Andrić, 2018. "Insolvency prediction model of the company: the case of the Republic of Serbia," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 139-157, January.
    14. K. G. M. Nanayakkara & A. A. Azeez, 2015. "Predicting Corporate Financial Distress in Sri Lanka: An Extension to Z-Score Model," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 5(3), pages 41-56, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Noha Adel Mohamed Abdelkader & Hayam Hassan Wahba, 2024. "A proposed multidimensional model for predicting financial distress: an empirical study on Egyptian listed firms," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Katarina Valaskova & Dominika Gajdosikova & Jaroslav Belas, 2023. "Bankruptcy prediction in the post-pandemic period: A case study of Visegrad Group countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 253-293, March.
    3. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Enrico Supino & Nicola Piras, 2022. "Le performance dei modelli di credit scoring in contesti di forte instabilit? macroeconomica: il ruolo delle Reti Neurali Artificiali," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(2), pages 41-61.
    5. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    6. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    7. Serrano-Cinca, Carlos & Gutiérrez-Nieto, Begoña & Bernate-Valbuena, Martha, 2019. "The use of accounting anomalies indicators to predict business failure," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 353-375.
    8. Thao Tran & Ngoc Hong Nguyen & Binh Thien Le & Nam Thanh Vu & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "Examining financial distress of the Vietnamese listed firms using accounting-based models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-17, May.
    9. Hamid Waqas & Rohani Md-Rus, 2018. "Predicting financial distress: Applicability of O-score model for Pakistani firms," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(2), pages 389-401, April.
    10. Ken Li, 2024. "Liquidity ratios and corporate failures," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(1), pages 1111-1134, March.
    11. Ilyes Abid & Farid Mkaouar & Olfa Kaabia, 2018. "Dynamic analysis of the forecasting bankruptcy under presence of unobserved heterogeneity," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 241-256, March.
    12. Kumar, Rahul & Deb, Soumya Guha & Mukherjee, Shubhadeep, 2020. "Do words reveal the latent truth? Identifying communication patterns of corporate losers," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    13. Arvind Shrivastava & Kuldeep Kumar & Nitin Kumar, 2018. "Business Distress Prediction Using Bayesian Logistic Model for Indian Firms," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Amin Jan & Maran Marimuthu & Muhammad Kashif Shad & Haseeb ur-Rehman & Muhammad Zahid & Ahmad Ali Jan, 2019. "Bankruptcy profile of the Islamic and conventional banks in Malaysia: a post-crisis period analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 67-87, February.
    15. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
    16. Sunti Tirapat & Aekkachai Nittayagasetwat, 1999. "An Investigation of Thai Listed Firms' Financial Distress Using Macro and Micro Variables," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 103-125, June.
    17. Duc Hong Vo & Binh Ninh Vo Pham & Chi Minh Ho & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, September.
    18. Tamara Ayœs, Armando Lenin & Villegas, Gladis Cecilia & Leones Castro, María Cristina & Salazar Bocanegra, Juan Antonio, 2018. "Modelaci—n del riesgo de insolvencia en empresas del sector salud empleando modelos logit || Modeling of Insolvency Risk in Health Sector Companies Using Logit Models," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 128-145, Diciembre.
    19. Nguyen, Ha, 2023. "An empirical application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to frailty correlated default models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-121.
    20. Sanjay Sehgal & Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Ajay Jaisawal, 2021. "A search for macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 435-461, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0303793. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.