IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0287386.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aboah
  • Andrea Apolloni
  • Raphaël Duboz
  • Barbara Wieland
  • Pacem Kotchofa
  • Edward Okoth
  • Michel Dione

Abstract

Vaccination is considered as the main tool for the Global Control and Eradication Strategy for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and the efficacity of the PPR-vaccine in conferring long-life immunity has been established. Despite this, previous studies asserted that vaccination can be expensive and consequently, the effectiveness of disease control may not necessarily translate to overall profit for farmers. Also, the consequences of PPR control on socioeconomic indicators like food and nutrition security at a macro-national level have not been explored thoroughly. Therefore, this study seeks to assess ex-ante the impact of PPR control strategies on farm-level profitability and the socioeconomic consequences concerning food and nutrition security at a national level in Senegal. A bi-level system dynamics model, compartmentalised into five modules consisting of integrated production-epidemiological, economics, disease control, marketing, and policy modules, was developed with the STELLA Architect software, validated, and simulated for 30 years at a weekly timestep. The model was parameterised with data from household surveys from pastoral areas in Northern Senegal and relevant existing data. Nine vaccination scenarios were examined considering different vaccination parameters (vaccination coverage, vaccine wastage, and the provision of government subsidies). The findings indicate that compared to a no-vaccination scenario, all the vaccination scenarios for both 26.5% (actual vaccination coverage) and 70% (expected vaccination coverage) resulted in statistically significant differences in the gross margin earnings and the potential per capita consumption for the supply of mutton and goat meat. At the prevailing vaccination coverage (with or without the provision of government subsidies), farm households will earn an average gross margin of $69.43 (annually) more than without vaccination, and the average per capita consumption for mutton and goat meat will increase by 1.13kg/person/year. When the vaccination coverage is increased to the prescribed threshold for PPR eradication (i.e., 70%), with or without the provision of government subsidies, the average gross margin earnings would be $72.23 annually and the per capita consumption will increase by 1.23kg/person/year compared to the baseline (without vaccination). This study’s findings offer an empirical justification for a sustainable approach to PPR eradication. The information on the socioeconomic benefits of vaccination can be promoted via sensitization campaigns to stimulate farmers’ uptake of the practice. This study can inform investment in PPR control.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aboah & Andrea Apolloni & Raphaël Duboz & Barbara Wieland & Pacem Kotchofa & Edward Okoth & Michel Dione, 2023. "Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(7), pages 1-21, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0287386
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0287386
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0287386&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0287386?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Femenia, Fabienne, 2019. "A Meta-Analysis of the Price and Income Elasticities of Food Demand," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 68(2), June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peltner, Jonas & Thiele , Silke, 2021. "Elasticities of Food Demand in Germany – A Demand System Analysis Using Disaggregated Household Scanner Data," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 70(01), January.
    2. Valenti, Daniele & Bertoni, Danilo & Cavicchioli, Davide & Olper, Alessandro, 2023. "Understanding the role of supply and demand factors in the global wheat market: a Structural Vector Autoregressive approach," FEEM Working Papers 338780, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Lippert, Christian & Feuerbacher, Arndt & Narjes, Manuel, 2021. "Revisiting the economic valuation of agricultural losses due to large-scale changes in pollinator populations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Peltner, Jonas & Thiele, Silke, 2021. "Elasticities of Food Demand in Germany – A Demand System Analysis Using Disaggregated Household Scanner Data," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 70(01), January.
    5. Bellassen, Valentin & Drut, Marion & Hilal, Mohamed & Bodini, Antonio & Donati, Michele & de Labarre, Matthieu Duboys & Filipović, Jelena & Gauvrit, Lisa & Gil, José M. & Hoang, Viet & Malak-Rawlikows, 2022. "The economic, environmental and social performance of European certified food," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Gohin, Alexandre & Matthews, Alan, 2024. "Ensuring farm minimum prices: Economic impacts of trade vs competition policies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Bayu Rizky Pratama & Dedie Tooy & Jonghwa Kim, 2023. "Price Competition and Shifting Demand: The Relation between Palm and Coconut Oil Exports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, December.
    8. Bairagi, Subir & Mohanty, Samarendu & Baruah, Sampriti & Trinh Thi, Huong, 2020. "Changing food consumption patterns in rural and urban Vietnam: Implications for a future food supply system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    9. Franziska Funke & Linus Mattauch & Inge van den Bijgaart & H. Charles J. Godfray & Cameron Hepburn & David Klenert & Marco Springmann & Nicolas Treich, 2022. "Toward Optimal Meat Pricing: Is It Time to Tax Meat Consumption?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(2), pages 219-240.
    10. Pavel Ciaian & Edoardo Baldoni & d'Artis Kancs & Dušan Drabik, 2021. "The Capitalization of Agricultural Subsidies into Land Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 17-38, October.
    11. Chmielewski, Łukasz, 2021. "Supply and Demand Situation and Prices on the Global and Polish Sugar Market," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 319810, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    12. Johan Gars & Daniel Spiro & Henrik Wachtmeister, 2022. "The effect of European fuel-tax cuts on the oil income of Russia," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 989-997, October.
    13. Bouyssou, Clara G. & Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård & Yu, Wusheng, 2024. "Food for thought: A meta-analysis of animal food demand elasticities across world regions," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0287386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.