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Discrete-event simulation modeling for housing of homeless populations

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  • Dashi I Singham
  • Jennifer Lucky
  • Stephanie Reinauer

Abstract

The San Francisco Bay Area has experienced a rapid rise in homelessness over the past decade. There is a critical need for quantitative analysis to help determine how to increase the amount of housing to meet the needs of people experiencing homelessness. Noting that the shortage of housing available through the homelessness response system can be modeled as a queue, we propose a discrete-event simulation to model the long-term flow of people through the homelessness response system. The model takes as input the rate of additional housing and shelter available each year and delivers as output the predicted number of people housed, sheltered, or unsheltered in the system. We worked with a team of stakeholders to analyze the data and processes for Alameda County in California and use this information to build and calibrate two simulation models. One model looks at aggregate need for housing, while the other differentiates the housing needs of the population into eight different types. The model suggests that a large investment in permanent housing and an initial ramp up of shelter is needed to solve unsheltered homelessness and accommodate future inflow to the system.

Suggested Citation

  • Dashi I Singham & Jennifer Lucky & Stephanie Reinauer, 2023. "Discrete-event simulation modeling for housing of homeless populations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(4), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0284336
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Agans Robert P. & Jefferson Malcolm T. & Bowling James M. & Zeng Donglin & Yang Jenny & Silverbush Mark, 2014. "Enumerating the Hidden Homeless: Strategies to Estimate the Homeless Gone Missing From a Point-in-Time Count," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 30(2), pages 215-229, June.
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    4. Vincent W. Slaugh & Mustafa Akan & Onur Kesten & M. Utku Ünver, 2016. "The Pennsylvania Adoption Exchange Improves Its Matching Process," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 133-153, April.
    5. Brandon W Higgs & Mojdeh Mohtashemi & Jennifer Grinsdale & L Masae Kawamura, 2007. "Early Detection of Tuberculosis Outbreaks among the San Francisco Homeless: Trade-Offs Between Spatial Resolution and Temporal Scale," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(12), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Rebecca T Brown & David Guzman & Lauren M Kaplan & Claudia Ponath & Christopher T Lee & Margot B Kushel, 2019. "Trajectories of functional impairment in homeless older adults: Results from the HOPE HOME study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, August.
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    1. Singham, Dashi I. & McDonald, Mary & Elliot, Robert, 2025. "Tradeoffs between equity and efficiency in Coordinated Entry of homeless housing systems," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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