IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0269515.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte—Brazil taking into account mobility and vaccination issues

Author

Listed:
  • Eder Dias
  • Alexandre M A Diniz
  • Giovanna R Souto
  • Henrique L Guerra
  • Humberto Torres Marques-Neto
  • Simon Malinowski
  • Silvio Jamil F Guimarães

Abstract

The pandemic caused millions of deaths around the world and forced governments to take drastic measures to reduce the spread of Coronavirus. Understanding the impact of social distancing measures on urban mobility and the number of COVID-19 cases allows governments to change public policies according to the evolution of the pandemic and plan ahead. Given the increasing rates of vaccination worldwide, immunization data may also represent an important predictor of COVID-19 cases. This study investigates the impact of urban mobility and vaccination upon COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte, Brazil using Prophet and ARIMA models to predict future outcomes. The developed models generated projections fairly close to real numbers, and some inferences were drawn through experimentation. Brazil became the epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic shortly after the first case was officially registered on February 25th, 2020. In response, several municipalities adopted lockdown (total or partial) measures to minimize the risk of new infections. Here, we propose prediction models which take into account mobility and vaccination data to predict new COVID-19 cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Eder Dias & Alexandre M A Diniz & Giovanna R Souto & Henrique L Guerra & Humberto Torres Marques-Neto & Simon Malinowski & Silvio Jamil F Guimarães, 2024. "Predicting COVID-19 cases in Belo Horizonte—Brazil taking into account mobility and vaccination issues," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(2), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0269515
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0269515
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0269515&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0269515?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T. Grahn, 1995. "A Conditional Least Squares Approach To Bilinear Time Series Estimation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 509-529, September.
    2. Yi-Tui Chen, 2021. "The Effect of Vaccination Rates on the Infection of COVID-19 under the Vaccination Rate below the Herd Immunity Threshold," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-10, July.
    3. Galbraith, JohnW. & Zinde-Walsh, Victoria, 1999. "On the distributions of Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics in processes with moving average components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 25-47, November.
    4. Anne B. Koehler & Emily S. Murphree, 1988. "A Comparison of the Akaike and Schwarz Criteria for Selecting Model Order," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 37(2), pages 187-195, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xingyu Zhang & Tao Zhang & Jiao Pei & Yuanyuan Liu & Xiaosong Li & Pau Medrano-Gracia, 2016. "Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    3. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    4. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Lifshits, Mikhail & Makarova, Svetlana, 2005. "Conditional testing for unit-root bilinearity in financial time series: some theoretical and empirical results," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 63-96, January.
    5. Kai Carstensen, 2003. "The finite-sample performance of robust unit root tests," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 469-482, October.
    6. Philip Hans Franses, 2019. "Model‐based forecast adjustment: With an illustration to inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 73-80, March.
    7. Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 57-72, Abril.
    8. Politis, Dimitris, 2016. "HEGY test under seasonal heterogeneity," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt2q4054kf, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    9. Roberto Mari & Roberto Rocci & Stefano Antonio Gattone, 2020. "Scale-constrained approaches for maximum likelihood estimation and model selection of clusterwise linear regression models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(1), pages 49-78, March.
    10. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
    11. ONAKOYA, Adegbemi Babatunde & AFINTINNI, Oluwatobi Ibukun, 2016. "Taxation and Economic Growth in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 199-210, December.
    12. Hyun Joung Jin & Jang-Chul Kim, 2008. "The effects of the BSE outbreak on the security values of US agribusiness and food processing firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 357-372.
    13. Carlos A. Medel, 2013. "How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? The case of Chilean GDP," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 50(1), pages 133-161, May.
    14. Bradley D. Custer & Hope O. Akaeze, 2021. "A Typology of State Financial Aid Grant Programs Using Latent Class Analysis," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 62(2), pages 175-205, March.
    15. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
    16. Durand, Robert B. & Greene, William H. & Harris, Mark N. & Khoo, Joye, 2022. "Heterogeneity in speed of adjustment using finite mixture models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    17. Klender Cortez & Martha del Pilar Rodríguez-García & Samuel Mongrut, 2020. "Exchange Market Liquidity Prediction with the K-Nearest Neighbor Approach: Crypto vs. Fiat Currencies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Smirnov, Dmitry & Huchzermeier, Arnd, 2020. "Analytics for labor planning in systems with load-dependent service times," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 668-681.
    19. Llorca, Manuel & Orea, Luis & Pollitt, Michael G., 2014. "Using the latent class approach to cluster firms in benchmarking: An application to the US electricity transmission industry," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 6-17.
    20. Manuel David Cruz, 2022. "Labor productivity, real wages, and employment: evidence from a panel of OECD economies over 1960-2019," Working Papers PKWP2203, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0269515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.