IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0268733.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of the twin pandemics: COVID-19 and oil crash on Saudi exchange index

Author

Listed:
  • Dania AL-Najjar

Abstract

This study aims to explore the effects of COVID-19 indicators and the oil price crash on the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul) Trading Volume and Tadawul Index (TASI) for the period from January 1, 2020, to December 2, 2020. The independent variable is oil price, and the COVID-19 indicators are lockdown, first and second decreases of Repo and Reverse Repo rates, Saudi government response, and cumulative deceased cases. The study adopts two phases. In the first phase, linear regression is used to identify the most influential variables affecting Trading volume and TASI. According to the results, the trading volume model is significant with an adjusted R2 of 65.5% and a standard error of 81. The findings of this model indicate a positive effect of cumulative deceased cases and first decrease of Repo and Reverse Repo rates and a negative effect of oil prices on Trading Volume. The TASI model is significant with an adjusted R2 of 86% and a standard error of 270. The results of this model indicate that lockdown and first decrease of Repo and Reverse Repo rates have a significant negative effect on TASI while the cumulative decrease in cases and oil prices have a positive effect on TASI. In the second phase, linear regression, and neural network predictors (with and without validation) are applied to predict the future TASI values. The neural network model indicates that the neural networks can achieve the best results if all independent variables are used together. By combining the collected results, the study finds that oil price has the most substantial effect on the changes in TASI as compared to the COVID-19 indicators. The results indicate that TASI rapidly follows the changes in oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Dania AL-Najjar, 2022. "Impact of the twin pandemics: COVID-19 and oil crash on Saudi exchange index," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(5), pages 1-24, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0268733
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268733
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0268733
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0268733&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0268733?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Topcu, Mert & Gulal, Omer Serkan, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    2. Eda Orhun, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 global health crisis on stock markets and understanding the cross-country effects," Pacific Accounting Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(1), pages 142-159, January.
    3. repec:eme:par000:par-07-2020-0096 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kizys, Renatas & Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Donadelli, Michael, 2021. "From COVID-19 herd immunity to investor herding in international stock markets: The role of government and regulatory restrictions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Song, Yu & Akagi, Fumio, 2016. "Application of artificial neural network for the prediction of stock market returns: The case of the Japanese stock marketAuthor-Name: Qiu, Mingyue," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-7.
    6. Ali, Mohsin & Alam, Nafis & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2020. "Coronavirus (COVID-19) — An epidemic or pandemic for financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2021. "COVID-19 and the United States financial markets’ volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    8. HaiYue Liu & Aqsa Manzoor & CangYu Wang & Lei Zhang & Zaira Manzoor, 2020. "The COVID-19 Outbreak and Affected Countries Stock Markets Response," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-19, April.
    9. Hamzeh F. Assous & Dania Al-Najjar, 2021. "Consequences of COVID-19 on Banking Sector Index: Artificial Neural Network Model," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Dinh Hoang Bach Phan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2020. "Country Responses and the Reaction of the Stock Market to COVID-19—a Preliminary Exposition," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2138-2150, August.
    11. Dania AL-Najjar & Hamzeh F Assous, 2021. "Key determinants of deposits volume using CAMEL rating system: The case of Saudi banks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Investor attention and global market returns during the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Abolfazl Mollalo & Kiara M. Rivera & Behzad Vahedi, 2020. "Artificial Neural Network Modeling of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Incidence Rates across the Continental United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-13, June.
    14. Dinh Hoang Bach Phan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2020. "Country Responses and the Reaction of the Stock Market to COVID-19—a Preliminary Exposition," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2138-2150, August.
    15. Dania Al-Najjar & Faheem Aslam, 2022. "The Co-Movement between International and Emerging Stock Markets Using ANN and Stepwise Models: Evidence from Selected Indices," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-14, March.
    16. Sergi, Bruno S. & Harjoto, Maretno Agus & Rossi, Fabrizio & Lee, Robert, 2021. "Do stock markets love misery? Evidence from the COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Zhixuan & Dong, Yanli & Liu, Ailan, 2022. "How does China's stock market react to supply chain disruptions from COVID-19?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2021. "The quest for multidimensional financial immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Bashir Ahmad Joo & Zahida Farooq, 2022. "Testing the impact of COVID-19 on trading behavior of the investors: An empirical evidence from Indian Stock Market," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 13(3), pages 21-29, September.
    5. Kamal, Javed Bin & Wohar, Mark, 2023. "Heterogenous responses of stock markets to covid related news and sentiments: Evidence from the 1st year of pandemic," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 68-85.
    6. Niculaescu, Corina E. & Sangiorgi, Ivan & Bell, Adrian R., 2023. "Does personal experience with COVID-19 impact investment decisions? Evidence from a survey of US retail investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Jialei Jiang & Eun-Mi Park & Seong-Taek Park, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability—A Case Study of Fluctuation in Stock Prices for China and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Osman Taylan & Abdulaziz S. Alkabaa & Mustafa Tahsin Yılmaz, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on G20 countries: analysis of economic recession using data mining approaches," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, December.
    9. Deev, Oleg & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2022. "How to calm down the markets? The effects of COVID-19 economic policy responses on financial market uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Aharon, David Y. & Siev, Smadar, 2021. "COVID-19, government interventions and emerging capital markets performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    12. Gu, Tiantian & Venkateswaran, Anand & Erath, Marc, 2023. "Impact of fiscal stimulus on volatility: A cross-country analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2023. "Investor Attention and Global Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from COVID-19," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 22(1), pages 85-104, March.
    14. Lin, Zih-Ying & Lu, Jia-Wen, 2024. "The impact of COVID-19 on global investor attention," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Zhang, Wenwen & Cao, Shuo & Zhang, Xuan & Qu, Xuefeng, 2023. "COVID-19 and stock market performance: Evidence from the RCEP countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 717-735.
    16. Monika Bolek & Cezary Bolek, 2024. "Covid-19 Data Manipulation and Reaction of Stock Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(1), pages 137-164, March.
    17. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Tirimisiyu F. Oloko & Idris A. Adediran, 2021. "A New Index for Measuring Uncertainty Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Indriyani, 2023. "Analysis of Factors Affecting Stock Return in the Middle of the Covid-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 13(4), pages 73-88.
    19. Yousaf, Imran, 2021. "Risk transmission from the COVID-19 to metals and energy markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Ritika & Himanshu & Nawal Kishor, 2023. "Modeling of factors affecting investment behavior during the pandemic: a grey-DEMATEL approach," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(2), pages 222-235, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0268733. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.