Developing a novel force forecasting technique for early prediction of critical events in robotics

Safety critical events in robotic applications can often be characterized by forces between the robot end-effector and the environment. One application in which safe interaction between the robot and environment is critical is in the area of medical robots. In this paper, we propose a novel Compact Form Dynamic Linearization Model-Free Prediction (CFDL-MFP) technique to predict future values of any time-series sensor data, such as interaction forces. Existing time series forecasting methods have high computational times which motivates the development of a novel technique. Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting as benchmark, the performance of the proposed model was evaluated in terms of accuracy, computation efficiency, and stability on various force profiles. The proposed algorithm was 11% more accurate than ARIMA and maximum computation time of CFDL-MFP was 4ms, compared to ARIMA (7390ms). Furthermore, we evaluate the model in the special case of predicting needle buckling events, before they occur, by using only axial force and needle-tip position data. The model was evaluated experimentally for robustness with steerable needle insertions into different tissues including gelatin and biological tissue. For a needle insertion velocity of 2.5mm/s, the proposed algorithm was able to predict needle buckling 2.03s sooner than human detections. In biological tissue, no false positive or false negative buckling detections occurred and the rates were low in artificial tissue. The proposed forecasting model can be used to ensure safe robot interactions with delicate environments by predicting adverse force-based events before they occur.