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Early school failure predicts teenage pregnancy and marriage: A large population-based cohort study in northern Malawi

Author

Listed:
  • Judith R Glynn
  • Bindu S Sunny
  • Bianca DeStavola
  • Albert Dube
  • Menard Chihana
  • Alison J Price
  • Amelia C Crampin

Abstract

Background: School dropout has been linked to early pregnancy and marriage but less is known about the effect of school performance. We aimed to assess whether school performance influenced age at sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage, and from what age school drop-out and performance were associated with these later life events. Methods: Data from 2007–2016 from a demographic surveillance site in northern Malawi with annual updating of schooling status and grades, and linked sexual behaviour surveys, were analysed to assess the associations of age-specific school performance (measured as age-for-grade) and status (in or out of school) on subsequent age at sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage. Landmark analysis with Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage by schooling at selected (landmark) ages, controlling for socio-economic factors. Results: Information on at least one outcome was available for >16,000 children seen at ages 10–18. Sexual debut was available on a subset aged ≥15 by 2011. For girls, being out of school was strongly associated with earlier sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage. For example, using schooling status at age 14, compared to girls in primary, those who had dropped out had adjusted hazard ratios of subsequent sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage of 5.39 (95% CI 3.27–8.86), 2.39 (1.82–3.12), and 2.76 (2.08–3.67) respectively. For boys, the equivalent association with sexual debut was weak, 1.92 (0.81–4.55), but that with marriage was strong, 3.74 (2.28–6.11), although boys married later. Being overage-for-grade was not associated with sexual debut for girls or boys. For girls, being overage-for-grade from age 10 was associated with earlier pregnancy and marriage (e.g. adjusted hazard ratio 2.84 (1.32–6.17) for pregnancy and 3.19 (1.47–6.94) for marriage, for those ≥3 years overage compared to those on track at age 10). For boys, overage-for-grade was associated with earlier marriage from age 12, with stronger associations at older ages (e.g. adjusted hazard ratio 2.41 (1.56–3.70) for those ≥3 years overage compared to those on track at age 14). For girls ≥3 years overage at age 14, 39% were pregnant before they were 18, compared to 18% of those who were on track. The main limitation was the use of reported ages of sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage. Conclusions: School progression at ages as young as 10 can predict teenage pregnancy and marriage, even after adjusting for socio-economic factors. Early education interventions may reduce teenage pregnancy and marriage as well as improving learning.

Suggested Citation

  • Judith R Glynn & Bindu S Sunny & Bianca DeStavola & Albert Dube & Menard Chihana & Alison J Price & Amelia C Crampin, 2018. "Early school failure predicts teenage pregnancy and marriage: A large population-based cohort study in northern Malawi," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0196041
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0196041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marta Favara, 2017. "Do Dreams Come True? Aspirations and Educational Attainments of Ethiopian Boys and Girls," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 26(5), pages 561-583.
    2. Monica J. Grant, 2015. "The Demographic Promise of Expanded Female Education: Trends in the Age at First Birth in Malawi," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 409-438, September.
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    2. Williams, Eunice Mueni & Padmadas, Sabu S. & Väisänen, Heini, 2024. "Falling behind in school: Mother’s economic empowerment and its association with children’s grade progression in Malawi," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Benson John & Natalie Nitsche, 2021. "Stalls and reversals in age at first marriage in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of female education expansion," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Ben Malinga John & Natalie Nitsche, 2025. "Prevalence and Drivers of Stalls and Reversals in Age at First Marriage in Sub-Saharan Africa," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(3), pages 1-36, June.
    5. Gowokani Chijere Chirwa & Jacob Mazalale & Gloria Likupe & Dominic Nkhoma & Levison Chiwaula & Jesman Chintsanya, 2019. "An evolution of socioeconomic related inequality in teenage pregnancy and childbearing in Malawi," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Rafi Amir-ud-Din & Hafiz Zahid Mahmood & Faisal Abbas & Verda Salman & Sameen Zafar, 2022. "Leaving studies because of lack of interest: an analysis of the risk factors of school dropouts in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3189-3214, October.

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