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Historical Epidemiology of the Second Cholera Pandemic: Relevance to Present Day Disease Dynamics

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  • Christina H Chan
  • Ashleigh R Tuite
  • David N Fisman

Abstract

Despite nearly two centuries of study, the fundamental transmission dynamic properties of cholera remain incompletely characterized. We used historical time-series data on the spread of cholera in twelve European and North American cities during the second cholera pandemic, as reported in Amariah Brigham’s 1832 A Treatise on Epidemic Cholera, to parameterize simple mathematical models of cholera transmission. Richards growth models were used to derive estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) (median: 16.0, range: 1.9 to 550.9) and the proportion of unrecognized cases (mean: 96.3%, SD: 0.04%). Heterogeneity in model-generated R0 estimates was consistent with variability in cholera dynamics described by contemporary investigators and may represent differences in the nature of cholera spread. While subject to limitations associated with measurement and the absence of microbiological diagnosis, historical epidemic data are a potentially rich source for understanding pathogen dynamics in the absence of control measures, particularly when used in conjunction with simple and readily interpretable mathematical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina H Chan & Ashleigh R Tuite & David N Fisman, 2013. "Historical Epidemiology of the Second Cholera Pandemic: Relevance to Present Day Disease Dynamics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-8, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0072498
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aaron A. King & Edward L. Ionides & Mercedes Pascual & Menno J. Bouma, 2008. "Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics," Nature, Nature, vol. 454(7206), pages 877-880, August.
    2. Ferrie, Joseph P. & Troesken, Werner, 2008. "Water and Chicago's mortality transition, 1850-1925," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-16, January.
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    2. Luo, Xilin & Duan, Huiming & Xu, Kai, 2021. "A novel grey model based on traditional Richards model and its application in COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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