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Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Aaron A. King

    (Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology,
    Department of Mathematics,)

  • Edward L. Ionides

    (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA)

  • Mercedes Pascual

    (Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology,
    Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA)

  • Menno J. Bouma

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London)

Abstract

Hidden truths about cholera The true extent of mild infections during cholera outbreaks is difficult to assess — estimates of the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections have ranged from as low as three to as high as a hundred — and as a result the interpretation of epidemiological records has been compromised. More compromised than was thought it seems: a new modelling study of patterns of cholera mortality in Bengal over a 50-year period suggests that the asymptomatic-to-symptomatic ratio in fact exceeds 1,000 to one. This work could dramatically revise thinking on cholera outbreaks and how to handle them, and suggests that the importance of inapparent infections in the ecology of infectious diseases in general has been underestimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron A. King & Edward L. Ionides & Mercedes Pascual & Menno J. Bouma, 2008. "Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics," Nature, Nature, vol. 454(7206), pages 877-880, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:454:y:2008:i:7206:d:10.1038_nature07084
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07084
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