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The impact of mask-wearing in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 during the early phases of the pandemic

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  • Ashwin Aravindakshan
  • Jörn Boehnke
  • Ehsan Gholami
  • Ashutosh Nayak

Abstract

Masks have been widely recommended as a precaution against COVID-19 transmission. Several studies have shown the efficacy of masks at reducing droplet dispersion in lab settings. However, during the early phases of the pandemic, the usage of masks varied widely across countries. Using individual response data from the Imperial College London—YouGov personal measures survey, this study investigates the effect of mask use within a country on the spread of COVID-19. The survey shows that mask-wearing exhibits substantial variations across countries and over time during the pandemic’s early phase. We use a reduced form econometric model to relate population-wide variation in mask-wearing to the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The results indicate that mask-wearing plays an important role in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Widespread mask-wearing associates with an expected 7% (95% CI: 3.94%—9.99%) decline in the growth rate of daily active cases of COVID-19 in the country. This daily decline equates to an expected 88.5% drop in daily active cases over 30 days compared to zero percent mask-wearing, all else held equal. The decline in daily growth rate due to the combined effect of mask-wearing, reduced outdoor mobility, and non-pharmaceutical interventions averages 28.1% (95% CI: 24.2%-32%).

Suggested Citation

  • Ashwin Aravindakshan & Jörn Boehnke & Ehsan Gholami & Ashutosh Nayak, 2022. "The impact of mask-wearing in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 during the early phases of the pandemic," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(9), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0000954
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000954
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    1. Solomon Hsiang & Daniel Allen & Sébastien Annan-Phan & Kendon Bell & Ian Bolliger & Trinetta Chong & Hannah Druckenmiller & Luna Yue Huang & Andrew Hultgren & Emma Krasovich & Peiley Lau & Jaecheol Le, 2020. "The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 262-267, August.
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