Genomic Selection and Association Mapping in Rice (Oryza sativa): Effect of Trait Genetic Architecture, Training Population Composition, Marker Number and Statistical Model on Accuracy of Rice Genomic Selection in Elite, Tropical Rice Breeding Lines

Genomic Selection (GS) is a new breeding method in which genome-wide markers are used to predict the breeding value of individuals in a breeding population. GS has been shown to improve breeding efficiency in dairy cattle and several crop plant species, and here we evaluate for the first time its efficacy for breeding inbred lines of rice. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in conjunction with five-fold GS cross-validation on a population of 363 elite breeding lines from the International Rice Research Institute's (IRRI) irrigated rice breeding program and herein report the GS results. The population was genotyped with 73,147 markers using genotyping-by-sequencing. The training population, statistical method used to build the GS model, number of markers, and trait were varied to determine their effect on prediction accuracy. For all three traits, genomic prediction models outperformed prediction based on pedigree records alone. Prediction accuracies ranged from 0.31 and 0.34 for grain yield and plant height to 0.63 for flowering time. Analyses using subsets of the full marker set suggest that using one marker every 0.2 cM is sufficient for genomic selection in this collection of rice breeding materials. RR-BLUP was the best performing statistical method for grain yield where no large effect QTL were detected by GWAS, while for flowering time, where a single very large effect QTL was detected, the non-GS multiple linear regression method outperformed GS models. For plant height, in which four mid-sized QTL were identified by GWAS, random forest produced the most consistently accurate GS models. Our results suggest that GS, informed by GWAS interpretations of genetic architecture and population structure, could become an effective tool for increasing the efficiency of rice breeding as the costs of genotyping continue to decline.Author Summary: Genomic selection is a promising breeding technique that aims to improve the efficiency and speed of the breeding process. While it has been shown to be effective in crops such as wheat and corn, it has not yet been applied to rice breeding. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS), by contrast, are used to identify genes or QTLs that underlie traits of importance to breeding such as yield, flowering time, or plant height, and has been performed successfully in rice. Here, we experiment with applying genomic selection in conjunction with GWAS to a rice breeding program at the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines and show that genomic selection can result in more accurate predictions of breeding line performance than pedigree data alone and that GWAS results can inform the results of GS. Our results suggest that GS could be an effective tool for increasing the efficiency of rice breeding.