IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Money Multiplier in Pakistan


  • Muhammad Farooq Arby

    (State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi.)


The paper has developed time-series models for the monthly money multiplier and its components, viz., currency-deposit ratio, reserve-deposit ratio, etc. A comparison is made between the predictive performance of the aggregate multiplier and the component models. It is found that the projected values of the multiplier on the basis of the aggregate model are closer to actual values as compared to those worked out on the basis of the component models. Thus, for the purposes of projecting the money multiplier, it may be preferable to focus on the aggregate money multiplier model. Stability tests, applied to the identified models for each component and the overall multiplier, suggest that all the models are stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Farooq Arby, 2000. "Predicting Money Multiplier in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(1), pages 23-35.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:1:p:23-35

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. S.M. Mazahir Hasnain Hamdani, 1976. "Money Multiplier As a Determinant of Money Supply: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 211-217.
    2. Johannes, James M. & Rasche, Robert H., 1979. "Predicting the money multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 301-325, July.
    3. Hafer, R. W. & Hein, Scott E., 1984. "Predicting the money multiplier : Forecasts from component and aggregate models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 375-384, November.
    4. Michele Fratianni & Mustapha Nabli, 1979. "Money stock control in the EEC countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 115(3), pages 401-424, September.
    5. Buttler, H. -J. & Gorgerat, J. -F. & Schiltknecht, H. & Schiltknecht, K., 1979. "A multiplier model for controlling the money stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 327-341, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2010. "Testing of money multiplier model for Pakistan: does monetary base carry any information?," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 9, pages 1-20, February.
    2. Asad Jan & Mansoor Saleem & Aqeel Ahmad & Arshad Riaz, 2013. "Disaggregate Analysis of Broad Money and Outlook of Key Monetary Aggregates," SBP Working Paper Series 58, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:1:p:23-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Khurram Iqbal). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.