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A Multiplier Model of Money Stock Control for Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Perry Warjiyo

    (Monetary and International Fconomics Iowa State University Ames Iowa)

Abstract

Makalah ini mengemukakan suatu acuan prosedur pengendalian uang beredar jangka pendek yang dapat digunakan oleh Bank Indonesia dalam mengarahkan kegiatan sehari-hari operasi pasar terbukanya guna mencapai suatu tingkat pertumbuhan jumlali uang beredar yang diinginkan. Modelnya didasarkan pada peramalan angka pengganda uang (money multiplier) dan telah digunakan di beberapa negara. Tiga pendekatan peramalan atas dasar pemodelan time series diajukan: Model ARIMA, Analisa Komponen, dan Model Fungsi Transfer. Ketiga model ini diestimasi dengan data bulanan dari Juni 1983 sampai dengan Desember 1988. Baik simulasi dalam sampel untuk tahun 1988, maupun simulasi paskasampel untuk tahun 1989 dilakukan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa pada umumnya pendekatan Analisa Komponen dapat memberikan prosedur pengendalian uang beredar yang lebih akurat untuk Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • Perry Warjiyo, 1990. "A Multiplier Model of Money Stock Control for Indonesia," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 38, pages 359-383, Desember.
    • Handle: RePEc:lpe:efijnl:199019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beenstock, Michael, 1989. "The Determinants of the Money Multiplier in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 464-480, November.
    2. Johannes, James M. & Rasche, Robert H., 1979. "Predicting the money multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 301-325, July.
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