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A Seasonality in the Pakistani Equity Market: The Ramadhan Effect

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  • Fazal Husain

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

This paper attempts to explore a seasonal pattern, the Ramadhan effect, in the Pakistani equity market. Ramadhan, the holy month of fasting, is expected to affect the behaviour of stock market in Pakistan where the environment in Ramadhan is different from other months as people devote more time to perform religious rituals and the general economic activity slows down. The effects of Ramadhan on mean return and stock returns volatility are examined by including a dummy variable in regressions and GARCH models respectively. The analysis indicates a significant decline in stock returns volatility in this month although the mean return indicates no significant change.

Suggested Citation

  • Fazal Husain, 1998. "A Seasonality in the Pakistani Equity Market: The Ramadhan Effect," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 77-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:1:p:77-81
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Seyyed, Fazal J. & Abraham, Abraham & Al-Hajji, Mohsen, 2005. "Seasonality in stock returns and volatility: The Ramadan effect," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 374-383, September.
    2. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "The impact of the Great Lent and of the Nativity Fast on the Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 89023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Dec 2016.
    3. Hasbullah, Faruq & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Fast profits in a fasting month? A markov regime switching approach in search of ramadan effect on stock markets," MPRA Paper 72149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2003. "Land Inequality and the Origin of Divergence and Overtaking in the Growth Process: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 3817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Murat Akbalik & K. Batu Tunay, 2016. "An Analysis Of Ramadan Effect By Gjr-Garch Model: Case Of Borsa Istanbul," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 593-612, December.
    6. Abdullah Al-Awadhi & Ahmad Bash & Fouad Jamaani, 2021. "Ramadan Effect: A Structural Time-Series Test," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 260-269, January.
    7. Salman Syed Ali & Khalid Mustafa, 2001. "Testing Semi-strong Form Efficiency of Stock Market," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 651-674.
    8. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    9. Shaista Wasiuzzaman, 2017. "Religious anomalies in Islamic stock markets: The Hajj Effect in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(3), pages 157-162, May.
    10. Attiya Y. Javid, 2007. "Stock Market Reaction to Catastrophic Shock: Evidence from Listed Pakistani Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:37, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    11. Wasiuzzaman, Shaista, 2018. "Seasonality in the Saudi stock market: The Hajj effect," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 273-281.
    12. Abbes, Mouna Boujelbène & Abdelhédi-Zouch, Mouna, 2015. "Does hajj pilgrimage affect the Islamic investor sentiment?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 138-152.
    13. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2017. "The Behavior of Stock Prices during Lent and Advent," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 95-112.
    14. Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David M. & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch, 2019. "Taking advantage of Ramadan and January in Muslim countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 85-96.
    15. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2005. "Testing the significance of calendar effects," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Nida Shah & Muhammad Nadeem Qureshi & Yasra Aslam, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Islamic Calendar Effect in Global Islamic Equity Indices," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 57-68, June.
    17. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2017. "The Behavior of Stock Prices during Lent and Advent," Proceedings RCE 2017, Editura Lumen, vol. 0, pages 95-112, November.
    18. Lai, Ya-Wen & Windawati, Atif, 2017. "Risk, return, and liquidity during Ramadan: Evidence from Indonesian and Malaysian stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 233-241.
    19. Dina Gabbori & Nader Virk & Nadeem Aftab & Basel Awartani, 2024. "The impact of Islamic events on herding behaviour in Saudi Arabian equities market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 119-134, January.
    20. Matthew C. Mitchell & Muhamad Iqbal Mohd Rafi & Sean Severe & Jeffrey A. Kappen, 2014. "Conventional Vs. Islamic Finance: The Impact Of Ramadan Upon Sharia-Compliant Markets," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 5(1).
    21. Halari, Anwar & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Power, David. M. & Helliar, Christine, 2015. "Islamic calendar anomalies: Evidence from Pakistani firm-level data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 64-73.
    22. Peter Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2003. "Testing the Significance of Calendar Effects," Working Papers 2003-03, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    23. Syed Zakir Abbas ZAIDI*, 2017. "Determinants Of Stocks For Optimal Portfolio," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 1-27.
    24. Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David, 2018. "East meets West: When the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 402-424.
    25. Fatima Syed & Naimat U. Khan, 2017. "Islamic Calendar Anomalies: Evidence from Pakistan," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(3), pages 104-122, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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