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The Random Walk Model in the Pakistani Equity Market: An Examination

Listed author(s):
  • Fazal Husain

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

This paper examines the validity of the Random Walk Model in the Pakistani equity market. The model, extensively tested in other equity markets, implies that past movements in a stock price are not helpful in predicting future prices of that stock. The model states that changes in stock prices are serially independent and conform to some probability distribution. Conventionally, the independence part is examined through Serial Correlation Test, whereas the distributional aspect is analysed through Frequency Distributions. Same techniques are applied in this paper on daily closing prices of 36 individual stocks, 8 sector indices, and a market index from January 1, 1989 to December 30, 1993. The analysis indicates that the Random Walk Model is not valid in the Pakistani equity market as is the case in other emerging markets. The results show the presence of strong serial dependence in stock returns and indicate the slow adjustment of the market to new information. This points to the weaknesses of the market regarding the dissemination of pertinent information to potential investors, indicating that effective measures should be taken in this regard. The shape of the distribution reveals that stock returns in the Pakistani market, like in other equity markets, do not comply with the normal distribution, implying that theoretical models must be used with caution.

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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 36 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 221-240

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:36:y:1997:i:3:p:221-240
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  1. Conrad, Klaus & Juttner, D Johannes, 1973. "Recent Behaviour of Stock Market Prices in Germany and the Random Walk Hypothesis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 576-599.
  2. Dryden, Myles M, 1970. "A Statistical Study of U.K. Share Prices," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 369-389, November.
  3. Jamshed Y. Uppal, 1993. "The Internationalisation of the Pakistani Stock Market: An Empirical Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 605-618.
  4. Ehsan Ahmed & J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., 1995. "Non-linear Speculative Bubbles in the Pakistani Stock Market," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 25-41.
  5. Nasir M. Khilji, 1993. "The Behaviour of Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 593-604.
  6. Solnik, Bruno H, 1973. "Note on the Validity of the Random Walk for European Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(5), pages 1151-1159, December.
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