IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/risman/v19y2017i4d10.1057_s41283-017-0024-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Designing stress scenarios for portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Krishan Mohan Nagpal

    (Wells Fargo & Co)

Abstract

Evaluating portfolio performance under different stress scenarios is an important risk management tool. Designing stress scenarios for portfolios can be complex as it involves determining potential market changes in different asset classes and risk factors in a coherent manner that are extreme but plausible. This paper describes an approach to design such stress scenarios where the portfolio performance depends on market changes in many risk factors and asset classes. The scenario design is customized for the portfolio and helps describe plausible market changes that would have the most adverse impact on the portfolio performance. The approach relies on historical data and derives the scenario based on market changes during historical periods that would have been the most stressful for the given portfolio. The proposed approach also allows one to adjust the level of severity and if desired incorporate any specific market conditions of concern (such as scenario design for increasing interest rate environment and/or certain level of unemployment rate, etc.). The main advantages of the proposed approach are (a) flexibility in scenario design with and without constraints on market conditions with adjustable levels of severities, (b) computational simplicity, (c) scalability to any number of market risk factors, (d) no need of prior assumptions on joint distribution of market risk factors, and (e) transparency of the results as they are developed from market changes during actual stressful historical periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Krishan Mohan Nagpal, 2017. "Designing stress scenarios for portfolios," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(4), pages 323-349, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:risman:v:19:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1057_s41283-017-0024-x
    DOI: 10.1057/s41283-017-0024-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41283-017-0024-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41283-017-0024-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
    2. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Macro stress tests and crises: what can we learn?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    3. Paul Glasserman & Chulmin Kang & Wanmo Kang, 2015. "Stress scenario selection by empirical likelihood," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 25-41, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dina Manolache Aurora Elena, 2019. "Stress and scenario tests in the context of a Romanian non-life insurance company," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 149-161, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Giuseppe Montesi & Giovanni Papiro & Massimiliano Fazzini & Alessandro Ronga, 2020. "Stochastic Optimization System for Bank Reverse Stress Testing," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-44, August.
    3. Matthew Pritsker, 2017. "Choosing Stress Scenarios for Systemic Risk Through Dimension Reduction," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Peter Grundke & Kamil Pliszka, 2018. "A macroeconomic reverse stress test," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1093-1130, May.
    5. N. Packham & F. Woebbeking, 2021. "Correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," Papers 2107.06839, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    6. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Vladimir Rodriguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," Working Papers 202106, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    7. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
    8. Reza Siregar & Lim, C.S. Vincent, 2011. "Living with Macro-financial Linkages: Policy Perspectives and Challenges for SEACEN Countries," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp79.
    9. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    10. Packham, Natalie & Woebbeking, Fabian, 2021. "Correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-012, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    11. Breuer, Thomas & Jandačka, Martin & Mencía, Javier & Summer, Martin, 2012. "A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 332-340.
    12. Kolari, James W. & López-Iturriaga, Félix J. & Sanz, Ivan Pastor, 2019. "Predicting European bank stress tests: Survival of the fittest," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 44-57.
    13. Michel Baes & Eric Schaanning, 2023. "Reverse stress testing: Scenario design for macroprudential stress tests," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 209-256, April.
    14. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    15. Paul Glasserman & Mike Li, 2022. "Should Bank Stress Tests Be Fair?," Papers 2207.13319, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    16. Mr. Christian Schmieder & Maher Hasan & Mr. Claus Puhr, 2011. "Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2011/083, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mark Flood & George Korenko, 2013. "Systematic Scenario Selection," Working Papers 13-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    18. Nan Chen & Paul Glasserman & Behzad Nouri & Markus Pelger, 2013. "CoCos, Bail-In, and Tail Risk," Working Papers 13-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    19. Packham, N. & Woebbeking, F., 2023. "Correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 55-67.
    20. Gary Gorton, 2015. "Stress for Success: A Review of Timothy Geithner's Financial Crisis Memoir," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(4), pages 975-995, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:risman:v:19:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1057_s41283-017-0024-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.