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Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging

Author

Listed:
  • Sang-Yoon Lee

    (INHA University)

  • Hyunwoo Lim

    () (INHA University)

  • Hwa-Joong Kim

    (INHA University)

Abstract

Abstract This paper aims to provide a practical method for forecasting potential container cargo volume that can be induced by a port development project on a container transport network by combining port choice and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The entrance channel improvement plan for Incheon New Port in South Korea is used as a case study. Based on the stated preference data collected from domestic shippers, a discrete choice analysis is performed to estimate the future market share of three major ports in South Korea: Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon. The estimated market share of Incheon New Port is used to forecast its future container volume derived by the ARIMA model and the potential port development scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Sang-Yoon Lee & Hyunwoo Lim & Hwa-Joong Kim, 2017. "Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(2), pages 296-314, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41278-016-0054-4
    DOI: 10.1057/s41278-016-0054-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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