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Feeling the Future: The Emotional Oracle Effect

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  • Michel Tuan Pham
  • Leonard Lee
  • Andrew T. Stephen

Abstract

Eight studies reveal an intriguing phenomenon: individuals who have higher trust in their feelings can predict the outcomes of future events better than individuals with lower trust in their feelings. This emotional oracle effect was found across a variety of prediction domains, including (a) the 2008 US Democratic presidential nomination, (b) movie box-office success, (c) the winner of American Idol, (d) the stock market, (e) college football, and even (f) the weather. It is mostly high trust in feelings that improves prediction accuracy rather than low trust in feelings that impairs it. However, the effect occurs only among individuals who possess sufficient background knowledge about the prediction domain, and it dissipates when the prediction criterion becomes inherently unpredictable. The authors hypothesize that the effect arises because trusting one's feelings encourages access to a "privileged window" into the vast amount of predictive information that people learn, often unconsciously, about their environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Tuan Pham & Leonard Lee & Andrew T. Stephen, 2012. "Feeling the Future: The Emotional Oracle Effect," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 461-477.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jconrs:doi:10.1086/663823
    DOI: 10.1086/663823
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    Cited by:

    1. Mantovani, Danielle & Tazima, Deborah Iuri, 2016. "Arte visual e foco regulatório na avaliação dos consumidores," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 56(2), March.
    2. Ng, Anthony C. & Rezaee, Zabihollah, 2015. "Business sustainability performance and cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 128-149.
    3. Chenxi Li & Xueming Luo & Cheng Zhang, 2017. "Sunny, Rainy, and Cloudy with a Chance of Mobile Promotion Effectiveness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(5), pages 762-779, September.
    4. Jeffrey Butler & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2014. "The role of intuition and reasoning in driving aversion to risk and ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 77(4), pages 455-484, December.
    5. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Butler, Jeff, 2013. "Manipulating Reliance on Intuition Reduces Risk and Ambiguity Aversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 9461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Fernandes, Daniel, 2013. "The 1/N Rule revisited: Heterogeneity in the naïve diversification bias," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 310-313.
    7. Luyang Zhou & Shengxiao Li & Lianxi Zhou & Hong Tao & Dave Bouckenooghe, 2023. "The effects of perceived organizational support on employees’ sense of job insecurity in times of external threats: an empirical investigation under lockdown conditions in China," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(4), pages 1567-1591, September.
    8. George, Jennifer M. & Dane, Erik, 2016. "Affect, emotion, and decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 47-55.
    9. Septianto, Felix & Chiew, Tung Moi & Thai, Nguyen T., 2020. "The congruence effect between product emotional appeal and country-based emotion: The moderating role of country-of-origin," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Mariela E Jaffé & Leonie Reutner & Rainer Greifeneder, 2019. "Catalyzing decisions: How a coin flip strengthens affective reactions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-14, August.
    11. Aydinli, Aylin & Gu, Yangjie & Pham, Michel Tuan, 2017. "An experience-utility explanation of the preference for larger assortments," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 746-760.

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