IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Troubleshooting Basel Ii: The Issue Of Procyclicality

Listed author(s):
  • Benyovszki Annamaria


    (Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Bordas Eszter

    (Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Kurti Laszlo - Adam

    (Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Szodorai Melinda

    (Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

A widespread concern about Basel II capital requirements is that it might amplify business cycle fluctuations, forcing banks to restrict their lending when the economy goes into recession. Under the IRB approach of Basel II, capital requirements are increasing functions of the probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD) parameters estimated for each borrower, and these inputs are likely to rise in economic downturns. In this paper, we compare two alternative procedures that are designed to somehow moderate the procyclical effects induced by Basel II - type capital regulation. The starting points of our analysis consist Jokivuolla, Kiema and Vesala (2009) and Repullo and Suarez (2009), who both examined the impact of regulatory capital's procyclical effects. It's vital to note remarks of Caprio (2009), that is, making regulatory capital levels countercyclical could worsen the state of an economy during a recession. As we do not have access to the Romanian Central Credit Register database, we compute a model-economy that stands as a proxy for the Romanian firms' sector. Our simulated Romanian economy can be characterised by all Romania-specific macroeconomic controls. Then we estimate a model of PDs during the period 2000 - 2010, and based on the estimated probabilities of default we compute the corresponding series of Basel II capital requirements. After the diagnosis of procyclicality, we analyze two procedures that try to mitigate the cyclical effects of capital regulation: smoothing the output of the Basel II formula, and smoothing the input, by construction of through-the-cycle (TTC) PDs. The comparison of the different procedures is based on the criterion of minimizing the root mean square deviations of each adjusted series. Our results show that the best ways to moderate procyclicality are either to smooth the input of the Basel II formula by using through-the-cycle PDs, or to smooth the output with a multiplier based on GDP growth. We conclude that the GDP-based smoothing may be more efficient than the use of TTC PDs in terms of simplicity and transparency. In terms of the GDP adjustment, regulatory capital levels should increase with approx. 1,31% during an economic growth period and decrease with 4,03% during a recession, in order to mitigate the cyclical effects induced by Basel II - type capital regulation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics in its journal The Journal of the Faculty of Economics - Economic.

Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 461-468

in new window

Handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2011:i:1:p:461-468
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Universitatii str. 1, Office F209, 410087 Oradea, Bihor

Phone: +40259408799
Fax: 004 0259 408409
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

in new window

  1. Jokivuolle, Esa & Kiema, Ilkka & Vesala, Timo, 2009. "Credit allocation, capital requirements and procyclicality," Research Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2011:i:1:p:461-468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catalin ZMOLE)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.