IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbbu/y2025iq4-24-2b1.html

Recent inflation developments in Austria – an analysis based on different decomposition frameworks

Author

Listed:

Abstract

In this paper we show that decomposing national accounts deflators such as the GDP deflator as a proxy for consumer price inflation can lead to misleading results. We compare the decomposition of the value-added deflator, the GDP deflator and the total supply deflator with a HICP decomposition proposed by Schneider (2024). We discuss the differences between these concepts in detail. We find that imports and wages account for the bulk of the differences. Most importantly, the surge in import prices in late 2021 pushed up HICP inflation but had no direct impact on the GDP deflator. Furthermore, we find that wage developments have a much higher impact on the GDP deflator than the HICP. In both 2023 and 2024, the contribution of wages to the GDP deflator was higher than for the HICP even though the latter index increased stronger in both years. We also look at the role of profits. While they were soaring in 2022 and contributed somewhat to inflation, they cratered in 2023 and particularly in 2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Reiss & Martin Schneider, 2025. "Recent inflation developments in Austria – an analysis based on different decomposition frameworks," OeNB Bulletin, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/24-2, pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2025:i:q4/24-2:b:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:aa722ccb-2f76-4283-be48-ea3f8cd4acdf/oenb-bulletin-q4-24-2-recent-inflation-developments-in-austria.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hahn, Elke & Renault, Théodore, 2024. "Profit indicators for inflation analysis considering the role of total costs," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    2. Martin Schneider, 2024. "What contributes to consumer price inflation? A novel decomposition framework with an application to Austria (Martin Schneider)," Working Papers 255, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    3. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Mr. Frederik G Toscani & Jing Zhou, 2023. "Euro Area Inflation after the Pandemic and Energy Shock: Import Prices, Profits and Wages," IMF Working Papers 2023/131, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weber, Isabella M. & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & van ’t Klooster, Jens, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: How cost shocks facilitate price hikes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 690-712.
    2. Michalis Nikiforos & Simon Grothe, 2023. "Contractionary Effects of Foreign Price Shocks (and Potentially Expansionary Effects of Inflation)," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_1028, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Alexandru VLADOI & Lara-Greta MERLING & Kevin CASHMAN, 2023. "Drivers And Impacts Of Inflation: A Look At Energy Prices, Exchange Rate Volatility, And Stock Markets," Eastern European Journal for Regional Studies (EEJRS), Center for Studies in European Integration (CSEI), Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova (ASEM), vol. 9(2), pages 41-52, December.
    4. Davide Romaniello & Antonella Stirati, 2024. "Cost-push and conflict inflation in theory and practice - with a discussion of the Italian case," FMM Working Paper 96-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Weber, Isabella & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & Klooster, Jens van’t, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: how cost shocks facilitate price hikes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Galstyan, Vahagn, 2023. "Understanding the Joint Dynamics of Inflation and Wage Growth in the Euro Area," Research Technical Papers 11/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    8. Scanlon, Paul, 2024. "A model of greedflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    9. Ciambezi, Leonardo & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "Accounting for the multiple sources of inflation: An agent-based model investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Stefan Collignon, 2024. "The Tale of Two Economies: Inflationary Dynamics in the Euro Area and the US in the Context of Uncertainty," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-27, June.
    11. Martin Schneider, 2024. "What contributes to consumer price inflation? A novel decomposition framework with an application to Austria (Martin Schneider)," Working Papers 255, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    12. Chan, Jenny & Diz, Sebastian & Kanngiesser, Derrick, 2024. "Energy prices and household heterogeneity: Monetary policy in a Gas-TANK," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    13. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Wimmer, Stefan & Hirsch, Stefan, 2025. "Has corporate greed driven inflation in the European Union? An analysis of the food and beverage industry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    14. Agnesi, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2025. "Redistribution through inflation: A multi-sector approach to income dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 69-81.
    15. Liza Archanskaia & Plamen Nikolov & Wouter Simons & Lukas Vogel, 2024. "Navigating Shocks: The Performance of the EU Corporate Sector from the Pandemic to the Energy Crisis," European Economy - Discussion Papers 216, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Bouras, Panagiotis & Bustamante, Christian & Guo, Xing & Short, Jacob, 2023. "The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    17. Bijnens, Gert & Duprez, Cédric & Jonckheere, Jana, 2023. "Have greed and rapidly rising wages triggered a profit-wage-price spiral? Firm-level evidence for Belgium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    18. Isik, Sayim & Mert, Mehmet & Ulug, Mehmet, 2025. "Profit produced by post-pandemic inflation: Evidence from an emerging economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-244.
    19. Kremer, Elise & Reissl, Severin & Fierro, Luca E. & Emmerling, Johannes & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "Energy price shocks in the European Union: Macroeconomic impacts, distributional effects and policy responses," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Dimitri Goldztejn, 2024. "Cost-push and conflict inflation: the case of France between 2021 and 2023," FMM Working Paper 110-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2025:i:q4/24-2:b:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alisa Besirevic-Abdagic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.