IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-64879-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volcanic eruptions disrupt ENSO teleconnections with land summer temperature

Author

Listed:
  • Xu Zhang

    (The University of Hong Kong
    The University of Hong Kong
    HKU Shenzhen Institute of Research and Innovation)

  • Jinbao Li

    (The University of Hong Kong
    The University of Hong Kong
    HKU Shenzhen Institute of Research and Innovation)

  • Shang-Ping Xie

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Fei Liu

    (Sun Yat-Sen University)

  • Feng Shi

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Cong Gao

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Han Zhang

    (The University of Hong Kong
    South China Normal University)

  • Qianjin Dong

    (Wuhan University)

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key ocean-atmospheric mode that affects global weather and climate through atmospheric teleconnections. It remains unclear how robust and stable ENSO teleconnection patterns are under external perturbations. Here, we use observations to demonstrate that volcanic eruptions disrupt ENSO teleconnections with land surface air temperature in boreal summer across the globe. During eruption years, correlations are found to shift in 62.27% of regions where temperature is significantly connected to ENSO during non-eruption years. State-of-the-art Earth System Models fail to capture this disruptive effect, highlighting challenges in simulating the patterns of climate anomalies and extremes under external perturbations. The disruptive effect identified here raises questions about the stationarity assumption in ENSO reconstructions based upon temperature-sensitive proxy records. Our findings call for an improved characterization of regional climate impacts following volcanic eruptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu Zhang & Jinbao Li & Shang-Ping Xie & Fei Liu & Feng Shi & Cong Gao & Han Zhang & Qianjin Dong, 2025. "Volcanic eruptions disrupt ENSO teleconnections with land summer temperature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-64879-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64879-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64879-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-64879-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. M. Smith & N. J. Dunstone & R. Eade & S. C. Hardiman & L. Hermanson & A. A. Scaife & M. Seabrook, 2025. "Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(4), pages 403-410, April.
    2. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Alexis M. Berg & Yao Zhang & Trevor F. Keenan & Benjamin I. Cook & Stefan Hagemann & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Pierre Gentine, 2021. "Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 38-44, January.
    3. Feng Zhu & Julien Emile-Geay & Kevin J. Anchukaitis & Gregory J. Hakim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Mariano S. Morales & Matthew Toohey & Jonathan King, 2022. "A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Alexis M. Berg & Yao Zhang & Trevor F. Keenan & Benjamin I. Cook & Stefan Hagemann & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Pierre Gentine, 2021. "Publisher Correction: Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 274-274, March.
    5. Myriam Khodri & Takeshi Izumo & Jérôme Vialard & Serge Janicot & Christophe Cassou & Matthieu Lengaigne & Juliette Mignot & Guillaume Gastineau & Eric Guilyardi & Nicolas Lebas & Alan Robock & Michael, 2017. "Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. M. Sigl & M. Winstrup & J. R. McConnell & K. C. Welten & G. Plunkett & F. Ludlow & U. Büntgen & M. Caffee & N. Chellman & D. Dahl-Jensen & H. Fischer & S. Kipfstuhl & C. Kostick & O. J. Maselli & F. M, 2015. "Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 523(7562), pages 543-549, July.
    7. Shankai Tang & Shaobo Qiao & Bin Wang & Fei Liu & Xian Zhu & Taichen Feng & Guolin Feng & Wenjie Dong, 2025. "Recent changes in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Maurice F. Huguenin & Ryan M. Holmes & Matthew H. England, 2022. "Drivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Qihua Peng & Shang-Ping Xie & Dongxiao Wang & Xiao-Tong Zheng & Hong Zhang, 2019. "Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics of the 2017 extreme coastal El Niño," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Vincent Humphrey & Jakob Zscheischler & Philippe Ciais & Lukas Gudmundsson & Stephen Sitch & Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2018. "Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to observed changes in terrestrial water storage," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7720), pages 628-631, August.
    11. Myriam Khodri & Takeshi Izumo & Jérôme Vialard & Serge Janicot & Christophe Cassou & Matthieu Lengaigne & Juliette Mignot & Guillaume Gastineau & Eric Guilyardi & Nicolas Lebas & Alan Robock & Michael, 2017. "Publisher Correction: Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-1, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fei Liu & Chaochao Gao & Jing Chai & Alan Robock & Bin Wang & Jinbao Li & Xu Zhang & Gang Huang & Wenjie Dong, 2022. "Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Dong, Leilei & Wang, Weizhen & Che, Tao & Wang, Yuhao & Huang, Xin & Zhang, Shengyin & Xu, Feinan & Feng, Jiaojiao, 2025. "Simultaneous retrieval of soil moisture and salinity in arid and semiarid regions using Sentinel-1 data and a revised dielectric model for salty soil," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    3. Yule Sun & Dongliang Zhang & Ze Miao & Shaodong Yang & Quanming Liu & Zhongyi Qu, 2025. "Season-Specific CNN and TVDI Approach for Soil Moisture and Irrigation Monitoring in the Hetao Irrigation District, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-35, September.
    4. Zhenyi Yuan & Nan Wei, 2022. "Coupling a New Version of the Common Land Model (CoLM) to the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES): Implementation, Experiment, and Preliminary Evaluation," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, May.
    5. Melo, Leonardo Leite de & Melo, Verônica Gaspar Martins Leite de & Marques, Patrícia Angélica Alves & Frizzone, Jose Antônio & Coelho, Rubens Duarte & Romero, Roseli Aparecida Francelin & Barros, Timó, 2022. "Deep learning for identification of water deficits in sugarcane based on thermal images," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    6. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Kirsten L. Findell & Trevor F. Keenan & Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine, 2022. "Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Li, Shenglin & Han, Yang & Li, Caixia & Wang, Jinglei, 2024. "A novel framework for multi-layer soil moisture estimation with high spatio-temporal resolution based on data fusion and automated machine learning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    8. Gabriele Vissio & Marco Turco & Antonello Provenzale, 2023. "Testing drought indicators for summer burned area prediction in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1125-1137, March.
    9. Sijia Wu & Ming Luo & Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau & Wei Zhang & Lin Wang & Zhen Liu & Lijie Lin & Yijing Wang & Erjia Ge & Jianfeng Li & Yuanchao Fan & Yimin Chen & Weilin Liao & Xiaoyu Wang & Xiaocong Xu, 2025. "Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Hsin Hsu & Paul A. Dirmeyer, 2023. "Soil moisture-evaporation coupling shifts into new gears under increasing CO2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    11. Hao Tang & Qiao Li & Hongfei Tao & Pingan Jiang & Congcang Tang & Xiangzhi Kong, 2025. "Analyzing the Driving Mechanism of Drought Using the Ecological Aridity Index Considering the Evapotranspiration Deficit—A Case Study in Xinjiang, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-26, September.
    12. Jing Sun & Kun Yang & Xiaogang He & Guiling Wang & Yong Wang & Yan Yu & Hui Lu, 2025. "Causal pathways underlying global soil moisture–precipitation coupling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Jonathan King & Kevin J. Anchukaitis & Kathryn Allen & Tessa Vance & Amy Hessl, 2023. "Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Feng Zhu & Julien Emile-Geay & Kevin J. Anchukaitis & Gregory J. Hakim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Mariano S. Morales & Matthew Toohey & Jonathan King, 2022. "A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    15. Sébastien Guillet & Christophe Corona & Zhen Yang & Clive Oppenheimer & Franck Lavigne & Francis Ludlow & Markus Stoffel, 2025. "Challenges in detecting volcanic forcing in climate and societal proxies: insights from the 1170/1171 CE eruption," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 1-24, March.
    16. Zhiqiao Wang & Zhao Jing & Fengfei Song, 2024. "Weakened large-scale surface heat flux feedback at midlatitudes under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    17. Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine & Xiangzhong Luo & Xu Lian & Yanlan Liu & Sha Zhou & Anna M. Michalak & Wu Sun & Joshua B. Fisher & Shilong Piao & Trevor F. Keenan, 2022. "Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    18. Wen Zhang & William K. Smith & Trevor F. Keenan & Matthew P. Dannenberg & Yang Li & Songhan Wang & John S. Kimball & David J. P. Moore, 2025. "Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Yuanyuan Song & Yuanlong Li & Gaël Forget & Aixue Hu & Qian Li & Jia-Rui Shi & Xiaodan Chen & Kai Ge & Fan Wang, 2025. "Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Kristine Camille V. Buenafe & Sandra Neubert & Kylie L. Scales & Daniel C. Dunn & Jason D. Everett & Jason Flower & Iain M. Suthers & Pablo Granados-Dieseldorff & Alvise Dabalà & Kris Jypson T. Estura, 2025. "Near-global spawning strategies of large pelagic fish," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-64879-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.