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A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation

Author

Listed:
  • Feng Zhu

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    University of Southern California)

  • Julien Emile-Geay

    (University of Southern California)

  • Kevin J. Anchukaitis

    (University of Arizona
    University of Arizona
    University of Arizona)

  • Gregory J. Hakim

    (University of Washington)

  • Andrew T. Wittenberg

    (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Mariano S. Morales

    (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)
    Universidad Continental)

  • Matthew Toohey

    (University of Saskatchewan)

  • Jonathan King

    (University of Arizona
    University of Arizona)

Abstract

The potential for explosive volcanism to affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been debated since the 1980s. Several observational studies, based largely on tree-ring proxies, have since found support for a positive ENSO phase in the year following large eruptions. In contrast, recent coral data from the heart of the tropical Pacific suggest no uniform ENSO response to explosive volcanism over the last millennium. Here we leverage paleoclimate data assimilation to integrate both tree-ring and coral proxies into a reconstruction of ENSO state, and re-appraise this relationship. We find only a weak statistical association between volcanism and ENSO, and identify the selection of volcanic events as a key variable to the conclusion. We discuss the difficulties of conclusively establishing a volcanic influence on ENSO by empirical means, given the myriad factors affecting the response, including the spatiotemporal details of the forcing and ENSO phase preconditioning.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Zhu & Julien Emile-Geay & Kevin J. Anchukaitis & Gregory J. Hakim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Mariano S. Morales & Matthew Toohey & Jonathan King, 2022. "A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28210-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28210-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Myriam Khodri & Takeshi Izumo & Jérôme Vialard & Serge Janicot & Christophe Cassou & Matthieu Lengaigne & Juliette Mignot & Guillaume Gastineau & Eric Guilyardi & Nicolas Lebas & Alan Robock & Michael, 2017. "Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Jinbao Li & Shang-Ping Xie & Edward R. Cook & Mariano S. Morales & Duncan A. Christie & Nathaniel C. Johnson & Fahu Chen & Rosanne D’Arrigo & Anthony M. Fowler & Xiaohua Gou & Keyan Fang, 2013. "El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 822-826, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan King & Kevin J. Anchukaitis & Kathryn Allen & Tessa Vance & Amy Hessl, 2023. "Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Philippa A. Higgins & Jonathan G. Palmer & Martin S. Andersen & Christian S. M. Turney & Fiona Johnson, 2023. "Extreme events in the multi-proxy South Pacific drought atlas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Fei Liu & Chaochao Gao & Jing Chai & Alan Robock & Bin Wang & Jinbao Li & Xu Zhang & Gang Huang & Wenjie Dong, 2022. "Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.

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