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Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing

Author

Listed:
  • J. Brad Adams

    (University of Virginia)

  • Michael E. Mann

    (University of Virginia)

  • Caspar M. Ammann

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

Past studies have suggested a statistical connection between explosive volcanic eruptions and subsequent El Niño climate events1,2. This connection, however, has remained controversial3,4,5. Here we present support for a response of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon6,7 to forcing from explosive volcanism by using two different palaeoclimate reconstructions of El Niño activity8,9 and two independent, proxy-based chronologies of explosive volcanic activity5 from ad 1649 to the present. We demonstrate a significant, multi-year, El Niño-like response to explosive tropical volcanic forcing over the past several centuries. The results imply roughly a doubling of the probability of an El Niño event occurring in the winter following a volcanic eruption. Our empirical findings shed light on how the tropical Pacific ocean–atmosphere system may respond to exogenous (both natural and anthropogenic) radiative forcing.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Brad Adams & Michael E. Mann & Caspar M. Ammann, 2003. "Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing," Nature, Nature, vol. 426(6964), pages 274-278, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:426:y:2003:i:6964:d:10.1038_nature02101
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02101
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Feng Zhu & Julien Emile-Geay & Kevin J. Anchukaitis & Gregory J. Hakim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Mariano S. Morales & Matthew Toohey & Jonathan King, 2022. "A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Marlos Goes & Nancy Tuana & Klaus Keller, 2011. "The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 719-744, December.
    3. Feng Wang & Dominique Arseneault & Étienne Boucher & Fabio Gennaretti & Shulong Yu & Tongwen Zhang, 2022. "Tropical volcanoes synchronize eastern Canada with Northern Hemisphere millennial temperature variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Shan Gao & J. Julio Camarero & Flurin Babst & Eryuan Liang, 2023. "Global tree growth resilience to cold extremes following the Tambora volcanic eruption," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    5. Fei Liu & Chaochao Gao & Jing Chai & Alan Robock & Bin Wang & Jinbao Li & Xu Zhang & Gang Huang & Wenjie Dong, 2022. "Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    6. Sungwoo Kim, 2023. "Successive volcanic eruptions (1809–1815) and two severe famines of Korea (1809–1810, 1814–1815) seen through historical records," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 1-15, January.
    7. Philip E Higuera & John T Abatzoglou & Jeremy S Littell & Penelope Morgan, 2015. "The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-21, June.
    8. Elisabeth Tschumi & Jakob Zscheischler, 2020. "Countrywide climate features during recorded climate-related disasters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 593-609, February.

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