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Poleward shift of subtropical highs drives Patagonian glacier mass loss

Author

Listed:
  • Brice Noël

    (University of Liège)

  • Stef Lhermitte

    (KU Leuven
    Delft University of Technology)

  • Bert Wouters

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Xavier Fettweis

    (University of Liège)

Abstract

Patagonian glaciers have been rapidly losing mass in the last two decades, but the driving processes remain poorly known. Here we use two state-of-the-art regional climate models to reconstruct long-term (1940-2023) glacier surface mass balance (SMB), i.e., the difference between precipitation accumulation, surface runoff and sublimation, at about 5 km spatial resolution, further statistically downscaled to 500 m. High-resolution SMB agrees well with in-situ observations and, combined with solid ice discharge estimates, captures recent GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite mass change. Glacier mass loss coincides with a long-term SMB decline (−0.35 Gt yr−2), primarily driven by enhanced surface runoff (+0.47 Gt yr−2) and steady precipitation. We link these trends to a poleward shift of the subtropical highs favouring warm northwesterly air advections towards Patagonia (+0.14°C dec−1 at 850 hPa). Since the 1940s, Patagonian glaciers have lost 1350 ± 449 Gt of ice, equivalent to 3.7 ± 1.2 mm of global mean sea-level rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Brice Noël & Stef Lhermitte & Bert Wouters & Xavier Fettweis, 2025. "Poleward shift of subtropical highs drives Patagonian glacier mass loss," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58974-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58974-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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