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The future of antibiotic use in livestock

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Acosta

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO))

  • Wondmagegn Tirkaso

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO))

  • Francesco Nicolli

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO))

  • Thomas P. Van Boeckel

    (University of Zürich
    One Health Trust
    Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Giuseppina Cinardi

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO))

  • Junxia Song

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO))

Abstract

Governments worldwide have pledged to reduce antimicrobial use in the agri-food system. This study projects global livestock antibiotic use quantities through 2040 under various scenarios. This work indicates that under a business-as-usual scenario, global antibiotic use could reach ~143,481 tons by 2040, representing a 29.5% increase from the 2019 baseline of ~110,777 tons. However, alternative scenarios suggest that these projections could vary by +14.2% to -56.8%, depending on changes in livestock biomass and antibiotic use intensity. A key contribution of this research is the development of the Livestock Biomass Conversion method, a novel indicator offering improved accuracy in estimating livestock biomass. The findings have important policy implications, highlighting that meaningful reductions in antibiotic use quantity can only be achieved through coordinated efforts targeting both antibiotic use intensity and livestock biomass.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Acosta & Wondmagegn Tirkaso & Francesco Nicolli & Thomas P. Van Boeckel & Giuseppina Cinardi & Junxia Song, 2025. "The future of antibiotic use in livestock," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56825-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56825-7
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