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Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Author

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  • Yanlei Feng

    (University of California)

  • Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • David M. Romps

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
    University of California)

  • Jeffrey Q. Chambers

    (University of California
    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

Abstract

Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanlei Feng & Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez & David M. Romps & Jeffrey Q. Chambers, 2023. "Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-35570-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert & Oliver L. Phillips & Roel J. W. Brienen & Sophie Fauset & Martin J. P. Sullivan & Timothy R. Baker & Kuo-Jung Chao & Ted R. Feldpausch & Emanuel Gloor & Niro Higuchi & Jean, 2020. "Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Izabela Aleixo & Darren Norris & Lia Hemerik & Antenor Barbosa & Eduardo Prata & Flávia Costa & Lourens Poorter, 2019. "Amazonian rainforest tree mortality driven by climate and functional traits," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 384-388, May.
    3. Luciana V. Gatti & Luana S. Basso & John B. Miller & Manuel Gloor & Lucas Gatti Domingues & Henrique L. G. Cassol & Graciela Tejada & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão & Carlos Nobre & Wouter Peters & Luciano Mara, 2021. "Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7867), pages 388-393, July.
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