IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-022-35570-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Yanlei Feng

    (University of California)

  • Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • David M. Romps

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
    University of California)

  • Jeffrey Q. Chambers

    (University of California
    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

Abstract

Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanlei Feng & Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez & David M. Romps & Jeffrey Q. Chambers, 2023. "Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-35570-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35570-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Izabela Aleixo & Darren Norris & Lia Hemerik & Antenor Barbosa & Eduardo Prata & Flávia Costa & Lourens Poorter, 2019. "Amazonian rainforest tree mortality driven by climate and functional traits," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 384-388, May.
    2. Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert & Oliver L. Phillips & Roel J. W. Brienen & Sophie Fauset & Martin J. P. Sullivan & Timothy R. Baker & Kuo-Jung Chao & Ted R. Feldpausch & Emanuel Gloor & Niro Higuchi & Jean, 2020. "Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Luciana V. Gatti & Luana S. Basso & John B. Miller & Manuel Gloor & Lucas Gatti Domingues & Henrique L. G. Cassol & Graciela Tejada & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão & Carlos Nobre & Wouter Peters & Luciano Mara, 2021. "Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7867), pages 388-393, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin J. P. Sullivan & Oliver L. Phillips & David Galbraith & Everton Almeida & Edmar Almeida Oliveira & Jarcilene Almeida & Esteban Álvarez Dávila & Luciana F. Alves & Ana Andrade & Luiz Aragão & Al, 2025. "Variation in wood density across South American tropical forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Antoine Leblois, 2021. "Mitigating the impact of bad rainy seasons in poor agricultural regions to tackle deforestation," Post-Print hal-03111007, HAL.
    3. World Bank, "undated". "Consolidating the Recovery," World Bank Publications - Reports 37244, The World Bank Group.
    4. Coulibaly, Yacouba, 2025. "The effects of resource-backed loans on deforestation: Evidence from developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Ablam Estel Apeti & Bossoma Doriane N’doua, 2023. "The impact of timber regulations on timber and timber product trade," Post-Print hal-04262489, HAL.
    6. Sebastian Luckeneder & Victor Maus & Juliana Siqueira-Gay & Tamás Krisztin & Michael Kuhn, 2025. "Forest loss and uncertain economic gains from industrial and garimpo mining in Brazilian municipalities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Mohsen Khezri, 2025. "Impact of Various Land Cover Transformations on Climate Change: Insights from a Spatial Panel Analysis," Data, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Michel G. J. Elzen & Ioannis Dafnomilis & Nicklas Forsell & Panagiotis Fragkos & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Niklas Höhne & Takeshi Kuramochi & Leonardo Nascimento & Mark Roelfsema & Heleen Soest & Frank Sp, 2022. "Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-29, August.
    9. Feng, Jing-Chun & Sun, Liwei & Yan, Jinyue, 2023. "Carbon sequestration via shellfish farming: A potential negative emissions technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    10. Mengting Dong & Zeyuan Liu & Xiufeng Ni & Zhulin Qi & Jinnan Wang & Qingyu Zhang, 2023. "Re-Evaluating the Value of Ecosystem Based on Carbon Benefit: A Case Study in Chengdu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, August.
    11. Loris André & Julio Ramos-Tallada, 2025. "Green Finance and Deforestation Reduction in Brazil: a PVAR Analysis of the Amazon Fund," Working papers 998, Banque de France.
    12. Débora Regina Roberti & Alecsander Mergen & Ricardo Acosta Gotuzzo & Gustavo Pujol Veeck & Tiago Bremm & Luciana Marin & Fernando Luiz Ferreira de Quadros & Rodrigo Josemar Seminoti Jacques, 2024. "Sustainability in Natural Grassland in the Brazilian Pampa Biome: Livestock Production with CO 2 Absorption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-18, April.
    13. Fernandes, Stephannie & Fernandes, Geraldo W. & Fearnside, Philip M., 2023. "Viewpoint: Sovereignty and reversing Brazil’s history of Amazon destruction," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. repec:plo:pone00:0224896 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marco A. Franco & Luciana V. Rizzo & Márcio J. Teixeira & Paulo Artaxo & Tasso Azevedo & Jos Lelieveld & Carlos A. Nobre & Christopher Pöhlker & Ulrich Pöschl & Julia Shimbo & Xiyan Xu & Luiz A. T. Ma, 2025. "How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Wenli Yang & Langang Feng & Zuogong Wang & Xiangbo Fan, 2023. "Carbon Emissions and National Sustainable Development Goals Coupling Coordination Degree Study from a Global Perspective: Characteristics, Heterogeneity, and Spatial Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-23, June.
    17. Shannon G. Klein & Cassandra Roch & Carlos M. Duarte, 2024. "Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Arthur Fendrich & Yu Feng & Jean-Pierre Wigneron & Jerôme Chave & Arnan Araza & Zheyuan Li & Martin Herold & Jean Ometto & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão & Isabel Martinez Cano & Lei Zhu & Yidi Xu & Philippe Ci, 2025. "Human influence on Amazon’s aboveground carbon dynamics intensified over the last decade," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, December.
    19. Yang, Yi & Yuan, Zhuqing & Gao, Haohao, 2024. "Allocating quotas for industrial carbon emissions fairly and efficiently to achieve “peak carbon”: A case of the yellow river basin in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    20. Li, Han & Si, Bing Cheng & Zhang, Zhiqiang & Miao, Changhong, 2022. "Deep soil water storage and drainage following conversion of deep rooted to shallow rooted vegetation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    21. Armah N. A. Ralph & Quartey Peter & Turkson Ebo Festus & Abbey N. Emmanuel & Mawuenyega M. Butu & Huan‐Niemi Ellen, 2025. "Interlinkages Between Agri‐Food Trade and the SDGs at the Global, Regional and Local Level," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 951-977, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-35570-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.