IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-32663-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests

Author

Listed:
  • Yong Dam Jeong

    (Nagoya University
    Pusan National University)

  • Keisuke Ejima

    (Indiana University School of Public Health-Bloomington
    The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research)

  • Kwang Su Kim

    (Nagoya University
    Pukyong National University)

  • Woo Joohyeon

    (Nagoya University)

  • Shoya Iwanami

    (Nagoya University)

  • Yasuhisa Fujita

    (Nagoya University)

  • Il Hyo Jung

    (Pusan National University)

  • Kazuyuki Aihara

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Kenji Shibuya

    (The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research)

  • Shingo Iwami

    (Nagoya University
    Kyushu University
    Kyoto University
    Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research (JFCR))

  • Ana I. Bento

    (Indiana University School of Public Health-Bloomington)

  • Marco Ajelli

    (Indiana University School of Public Health-Bloomington)

Abstract

Appropriate isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients are warranted. Currently, isolating for fixed time is adopted in most countries. However, given the variability in viral dynamics between patients, some patients may no longer be infectious by the end of isolation, whereas others may still be infectious. Utilizing viral test results to determine isolation length would minimize both the risk of prematurely ending isolation of infectious patients and the unnecessary individual burden of redundant isolation of noninfectious patients. In this study, we develop a data-driven computational framework to compute the population-level risk and the burden of different isolation guidelines with rapid antigen tests (i.e., lateral flow tests). Here, we show that when the detection limit is higher than the infectiousness threshold values, additional consecutive negative results are needed to ascertain infectiousness status. Further, rapid antigen tests should be designed to have lower detection limits than infectiousness threshold values to minimize the length of prolonged isolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Dam Jeong & Keisuke Ejima & Kwang Su Kim & Woo Joohyeon & Shoya Iwanami & Yasuhisa Fujita & Il Hyo Jung & Kazuyuki Aihara & Kenji Shibuya & Shingo Iwami & Ana I. Bento & Marco Ajelli, 2022. "Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32663-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32663-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32663-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-32663-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen M Kissler & Joseph R Fauver & Christina Mack & Scott W Olesen & Caroline Tai & Kristin Y Shiue & Chaney C Kalinich & Sarah Jednak & Isabel M Ott & Chantal B F Vogels & Jay Wohlgemuth & James W, 2021. "Viral dynamics of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and applications to diagnostic and public health strategies," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(7), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Alberto Aleta & David Martín-Corral & Ana Pastore y Piontti & Marco Ajelli & Maria Litvinova & Matteo Chinazzi & Natalie E. Dean & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Ira M. Longini Jr & Stefano Merler & Alex Pen, 2020. "Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(9), pages 964-971, September.
    3. Quan-Hui Liu & Juanjuan Zhang & Cheng Peng & Maria Litvinova & Shudong Huang & Piero Poletti & Filippo Trentini & Giorgio Guzzetta & Valentina Marziano & Tao Zhou & Cecile Viboud & Ana I. Bento & Jian, 2022. "Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Junya Sunagawa & Hyeongki Park & Kwang Su Kim & Ryo Komorizono & Sooyoun Choi & Lucia Ramirez Torres & Joohyeon Woo & Yong Dam Jeong & William S. Hart & Robin N. Thompson & Kazuyuki Aihara & Shingo Iw, 2023. "Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Yong Dam Jeong & William S. Hart & Robin N. Thompson & Masahiro Ishikane & Takara Nishiyama & Hyeongki Park & Noriko Iwamoto & Ayana Sakurai & Michiyo Suzuki & Kazuyuki Aihara & Koichi Watashi & Eline, 2024. "Modelling the effectiveness of an isolation strategy for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen M. Kissler & James A. Hay & Joseph R. Fauver & Christina Mack & Caroline G. Tai & Deverick J. Anderson & David D. Ho & Nathan D. Grubaugh & Yonatan H. Grad, 2023. "Viral kinetics of sequential SARS-CoV-2 infections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Thomas Ash & Antonio M. Bento & Daniel Kaffine & Akhil Rao & Ana I. Bento, 2022. "Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Umit Cirakli & Ibrahim Dogan & Mehmet Gozlu, 2022. "The Relationship Between COVID-19 Cases and COVID-19 Testing: a Panel Data Analysis on OECD Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(3), pages 1737-1750, September.
    4. Nie, Yanyi & Zhong, Xiaoni & Lin, Tao & Wang, Wei, 2023. "Pathogen diversity in meta-population networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    5. David Ehrlich & Nora Szech, 2022. "How to Start a Grassroots Movement," CESifo Working Paper Series 9943, CESifo.
    6. Zhou, Xin & Liao, Wenzhu, 2023. "Research on demand forecasting and distribution of emergency medical supplies using an agent-based model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Utsumi, Shinobu & Arefin, Md. Rajib & Tatsukawa, Yuichi & Tanimoto, Jun, 2022. "How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Abdin, Adam F. & Fang, Yi-Ping & Caunhye, Aakil & Alem, Douglas & Barros, Anne & Zio, Enrico, 2023. "An optimization model for planning testing and control strategies to limit the spread of a pandemic – The case of COVID-19," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 308-324.
    9. Yun Lin & Bingyi Yang & Sarah Cobey & Eric H. Y. Lau & Dillon C. Adam & Jessica Y. Wong & Helen S. Bond & Justin K. Cheung & Faith Ho & Huizhi Gao & Sheikh Taslim Ali & Nancy H. L. Leung & Tim K. Tsan, 2022. "Incorporating temporal distribution of population-level viral load enables real-time estimation of COVID-19 transmission," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    10. Malgorzata J. Krawczyk & Mateusz Libirt & Krzysztof Malarz, 2024. "Analysis of scientific cooperation at the international and intercontinental level," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(8), pages 4983-5002, August.
    11. Yu, Ling & Zhao, Pengjun & Tang, Junqing & Pang, Liang, 2023. "Changes in tourist mobility after COVID-19 outbreaks," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    12. Bansal, Prateek & Kessels, Roselinde & Krueger, Rico & Graham, Daniel J., 2022. "Preferences for using the London Underground during the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 45-60.
    13. Neuvonen, Lauri & Wildemeersch, Matthias & Vilkkumaa, Eeva, 2023. "Supporting strategy selection in multiobjective decision problems under uncertainty and hidden requirements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 279-293.
    14. Hanyu Li & Kazuki Kuga & Kazuhide Ito, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics in the Mucus Layer of the Human Upper Respiratory Tract Based on Host–Cell Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, March.
    15. Bárcena-Martín, Elena & Molina, Julián & Muñoz-Fernández, Ana & Pérez-Moreno, Salvador, 2022. "Vulnerability and COVID-19 infection rates: A changing relationship during the first year of the pandemic," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    16. Marco Pangallo & Alberto Aleta & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona & Anton Pichler & David Martín-Corral & Matteo Chinazzi & François Lafond & Marco Ajelli & Esteban Moro & Yamir Moreno & Alessandro Vespignani, 2024. "The unequal effects of the health–economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 8(2), pages 264-275, February.
    17. Ventura, Paulo C. & Tokuda, Eric K. & da F. Costa, Luciano & Rodrigues, Francisco A., 2023. "A Markov chain for metapopulations of small sizes with attraction landscape," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Choi, K. & Choi, Hoyun & Kahng, B., 2022. "COVID-19 epidemic under the K-quarantine model: Network approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    19. Spooner, Fiona & Abrams, Jesse F. & Morrissey, Karyn & Shaddick, Gavin & Batty, Michael & Milton, Richard & Dennett, Adam & Lomax, Nik & Malleson, Nick & Nelissen, Natalie & Coleman, Alex & Nur, Jamil, 2021. "A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    20. Meng, Xueyu & Lin, Jianhong & Fan, Yufei & Gao, Fujuan & Fenoaltea, Enrico Maria & Cai, Zhiqiang & Si, Shubin, 2023. "Coupled disease-vaccination behavior dynamic analysis and its application in COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32663-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.