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Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Aleta

    (Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation)

  • David Martín-Corral

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
    Zensei Technologies S.L.)

  • Ana Pastore y Piontti

    (Northeastern University)

  • Marco Ajelli

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    Indiana University School of Public Health)

  • Maria Litvinova

    (Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation)

  • Matteo Chinazzi

    (Northeastern University)

  • Natalie E. Dean

    (University of Florida)

  • M. Elizabeth Halloran

    (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
    University of Washington)

  • Ira M. Longini Jr

    (University of Florida)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Alex Pentland

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Alessandro Vespignani

    (Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation
    Northeastern University)

  • Esteban Moro

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Yamir Moreno

    (Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation
    University of Zaragoza
    University of Zaragoza)

Abstract

While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Aleta & David Martín-Corral & Ana Pastore y Piontti & Marco Ajelli & Maria Litvinova & Matteo Chinazzi & Natalie E. Dean & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Ira M. Longini Jr & Stefano Merler & Alex Pen, 2020. "Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(9), pages 964-971, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:4:y:2020:i:9:d:10.1038_s41562-020-0931-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9
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