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Future changes in the trading of virtual water

Author

Listed:
  • Neal T. Graham

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    University of Maryland
    Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center)

  • Mohamad I. Hejazi

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center)

  • Son H. Kim

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Evan G. R. Davies

    (University of Alberta)

  • James A. Edmonds

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    University of Maryland
    Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
    The Nature Conservancy)

Abstract

Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21st century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Neal T. Graham & Mohamad I. Hejazi & Son H. Kim & Evan G. R. Davies & James A. Edmonds & Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, 2020. "Future changes in the trading of virtual water," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-17400-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17400-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Hongzhi & Li, Hao & Wang, Song & Wang, Zhenpo, 2023. "Identifying the key factors to China's unsustainable external circulation through the accounting of the flow of embodied energy and virtual water," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Anderson, Edward & Zachary, Stan, 2023. "Minimax decision rules for planning under uncertainty: Drawbacks and remedies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(2), pages 789-800.
    3. Derfler-Rozin, Rellie & Isaakyan, Sofya & Park, Hyunsun, 2022. "Swiftly judging whom to bring on board: How person perception (accurate or not) influences selection of prospective team members," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Hachaichi, Mohamed, 2023. "Unpacking the urban virtual water of the Global South: Lessons from 181 cities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    5. Katarzyna Kocur-Bera & Anna Lyjak, 2021. "Analysis of Changes in Agricultural Use of Land After Poland’s Accession to the EU," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 517-533.
    6. Loa, Patrick & Hossain, Sanjana & Liu, Yicong & Nurul Habib, Khandker, 2022. "How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the use of ride-sourcing services? An empirical evidence-based investigation for the Greater Toronto Area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 46-62.
    7. Wang, Chunan & Jiang, Changmin, 2022. "How do pandemics affect intercity air travel? Implications for traffic and environment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 330-353.

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